Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 13, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil futures surged past $100 as Middle East conflict disrupted supply routes, with Brent crude climbing 8% since hostilities began. A Thai refiner's rare purchase of North Sea Forties crude from Trafigura highlighted Asian processors' scramble for alternatives to Persian Gulf supplies. The rapid price spike is rattling quant strategies, with systematic traders unwinding $134 billion in positions as volatility surges. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto's lithium plant slowdown in Quebec reflects cost pressures hitting clean energy projects, while BHP's iron ore restrictions easing in China signals shifting trade dynamics as Beijing relaxes bans amid supply concerns.
Fixed Income & Credit
US Treasuries advanced sharply as weak economic data bolstered Fed rate-cut expectations, with traders pricing in a June reduction. The spike in oil prices is reviving 2008 crisis comparisons, with Bank of America's Hartnett warning of parallels to the financial meltdown's lead-up. Private credit markets show warning signs as Vivid Seats' debt sank deeper into distressed territory following weak earnings. In Europe, BNP Paribas tests investor appetite for a €2.5 billion significant risk transfer as war reprices credit risk across corporate loans.
Equities & IPO Markets
US stocks opened higher on Friday as tepid economic data boosted rate-cut hopes, though retail investors show first signs of fatigue amid Middle East escalation. Energy stocks lagged broader gains despite crude's rally, suggesting investors anticipate limited upside as geopolitical tensions persist. The 60-40 portfolio model faces its biggest test in years as stocks and bonds fall in tandem amid stagflation fears. Meanwhile, Nasdaq considers special rules for hot IPOs as SpaceX and OpenAI prepare listings, while India's Raajmarg Infra Trust IPO was subscribed 14 times signaling strong demand for yield-focused assets.
Currencies & Emerging Markets
The Hungarian forint is emerging's worst performer as energy price shocks amplify election risks ahead of next month's vote. India's forex reserves fell sharply as the RBI intervened to support the rupee amid war-driven volatility. Emerging market currencies broadly struggle against dollar strength as oil's surge drives capital flight to safe havens. Turkey moves toward nuclear power in a bid to diversify energy sources, discussing joint construction with South Korea.
Geopolitics & Trade
The EU prepares to suspend sugar imports for at least a year to stabilize bloc prices, while Brazil's state oil giant Petrobras raised diesel prices a day after federal tax breaks. Cuba acknowledges talks with Trump officials as President Díaz-Canel seeks respect for sovereignty amid fuel shortages. Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil's joint call for Iran ceasefire represents Latin America's biggest leftist bloc urging peace. Meanwhile, Saudi stocks defy regional turmoil to rise as local buyers step in despite conflict.
Corporate & Private Markets
BlackRock's $220 billion model platform remains bullish on US equities despite geopolitical turmoil, while Charles Schwab forecasts 16% revenue growth for Q1 as retail investors stay engaged. Hims & Hers shares are on pace for record week after a Novo Nordisk partnership fuels optimism about weight-loss drug prospects. Danish drugmaker Leo Pharma seeks IPO bankers as the century-old company eyes public markets. Venture Global greenlights $8.6 billion LNG expansion in Louisiana, betting on sustained global demand.
Technology & Innovation
Elon Musk pushes out more xAI founders as the AI coding effort falters, with Tesla and SpaceX managers reviewing work. BYD takes on Porsche and BMW with 5-minute "flash charging" technology that could revolutionize EV adoption. Andreessen Horowitz-backed startup plans to revive abandoned copper mine in Utah to test automated mining technology. Meanwhile, Exail Technologies shares rally as Iran's Hormuz closure highlights its mine-destroying drone capabilities.
Regional Markets
South African mining exploration falls for seventh straight year despite government ambitions to reverse decline. Ghana's cocoa regulator hasn't repaid $400 million in loans, threatening next season's bean purchases. India's neighbors turn to New Delhi for fuel as Middle East war curtails Persian Gulf access, giving Asia's third-largest economy an opportunity to expand influence. OPEC oil output rose ahead of Iran war as Saudi Arabia bolstered production amid rising tensions.
Alternative Assets
Private credit markets exhibit half the ingredients of a financial crisis as valuations on balance sheets diverge from reality. Wall Street pitches bond alternatives as traditional hedges disappoint amid market stress. A Peyton Manning-backed women's soccer team sells private debt, highlighting alternative financing in sports. The war's impact on stagflation is forcing investors to reconsider traditional portfolio allocations as 60-40 strategies fail to provide diversification.