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Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing

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Market Turmoil

US oil futures surged to 20-month highs as investors priced in a prolonged Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 fell sharply following the oil price spike, with energy stocks rising while broader markets retreated. Marvell Technology reported higher sales driven by AI demand, providing a rare bright spot in tech earnings.

Energy Crisis

Saudi Arabia raised oil prices to Asia by the most since August 2022 as the Iran war roiled markets. Aramco shifted shipments to the Red Sea route, effectively halting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Former US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz warned oil could top $100 per barrel if the shipping chokepoint remains restricted.

Economic Impact

Sub-6% mortgage rates vanished as Iran war sparked inflation fears, with homebuyers rushing to lock in rates before they climbed. Delta Air Lines overhauled its C-suite as operations chief plans to exit amid mounting airline troubles. Royal Bank of Canada CEO Dave McKay received C$24 million in total compensation last year, including an 86% above-target bonus.

Corporate Moves

Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO Greg Abel started the company's first share buyback of the post-Buffett era with cash holdings at a record $373 billion. Colombian tycoon Jaime Gilinski invested $107 million in Latin American oil producer Geo Park, envisioning a path into Venezuela's oil sector. Oracle plans thousands of job cuts as it faces an AI cash crunch.

Legal & Regulatory

US regulators said banks won't face extra capital charges on tokenized securities. President Trump said he must be involved in selecting Iran's next leader as the conflict intensifies. Trump's new tariffs face legal challenge from states planning to file a lawsuit over the 10% tax on goods entering the US.

Financial Markets

The dollar is heading for its best week since 2024 after the US strike on Iran triggered a flight to safety. Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will forgo any rate cuts this year as Middle East tensions boost oil prices. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged global leaders to find a "basic code of conduct" for cooperation amid geopolitical tensions.

Aviation Disruptions

Heathrow Airport faces mounting cancellations and parked planes from the war, with the Mideast conflict posing an "operational challenge." Europe-to-Asia air travel was squeezed into a narrow corridor after a drone attack on Azerbaijan. Jet fuel prices soared as the Iran war squeezes supply, with more flights resuming across the Middle East despite some refueling disruptions in Oman.

Retail & Consumer

Costco posted higher second-quarter profit on rising sales and membership fees, with quarterly profit reaching $2.04 billion. Gap profit fell as Athleta weighed on results again, with same-store sales dropping 10% at the athletic apparel brand. BYD launched a new fast-charging battery that can be fully charged in nine minutes to address slowing demand in China's EV market.