Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Energy & Geopolitical Shock
European natural gas surged more than 40% to a three-year high after Qatar shut the world’s largest LNG export plant following a drone attack. The supply disruption is forcing Asian traders to scramble for alternatives and prompting India to cut industrial gas supplies. Oil prices climbed above $85 a barrel, driving a global bond selloff as traders price in resurgent inflation risks. The Strait of Hormuz disruptions are expected to last weeks, with a tanker shortage threatening production cuts in the Persian Gulf.
Corporate Earnings & Guidance
Target reported a 2.5% drop in comparable sales, setting up a turnaround plan from new CEO Michael Fiddelke. Sea Limited shares tumbled on a fourth-quarter earnings miss, while On Holding slid after its 2026 revenue outlook fell short. Beiersdorf sank 15% on a sluggish forecast, pressured by costs and FX, and Schaeffler plummeted 19% on a weak 2026 outlook. Greggs reported a profit drop as UK consumer sentiment weakened.
Central Banks & Inflation
US Treasuries slumped for a second day as traders slashed bets on Fed rate cuts this year. European bonds extended their selloff after a senior ECB official warned a prolonged conflict could bring stagflation. The Bank of England now faces reduced odds for a second cut this year. ECB research warns widespread stablecoin adoption would threaten monetary sovereignty, while ECB’s top economist cautioned a lengthy Iran war could cause an inflation spike and sharp output drop.
Equity Reactions & positioning
European stocks headed for their biggest two-day drop since April as the inflation and rate outlook darkens. Morgan Stanley advised that European stocks should remain underweight due to continued tactical risks. JPMorgan argued the selloff in European bank stocks is overdone. South African assets extended their slide, though Bank of America sees further upside for stocks amid gold and rand gains. Traders are now positioning for a South African rate hike this month.
Deals & Capital Markets
Zurich Insurance confirmed its $11 billion takeover of Beazley. Rosebank Industries plans to fund $3.05 billion in US acquisitions by selling shares. BlackRock pushed for more active management and private assets in retirement plans, while a BlackRock-backed group is moving to close a ports deal without Panama assets. Nidec warned of $1.6 billion in charges from an accounting scandal.
Currency & Commodities
The dollar surged, regaining its safe-haven status. Japan Post Insurance plans to shift from low-yield government bonds to higher-yielding debt. Egypt’s pound weakened past 50 per dollar on conflict fears. Gold wagers hit a 16-week high as risk-off sentiment grew. Chinese copper supplies swelled as output hit record levels, potentially capping gains.