Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 21, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Volatility

Oil futures for a third straight session as the U.S. and Iran continued strikes, with President Trump stating the U.S. is not interested in a meeting until Iran is ready. Brent crude advanced to its highest level since early June amid traders weighing threats to maritime traffic spanning the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as a key Kazakh export terminal on Russia’s coast. Goldman Sachs warned oil could jump to $120 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. The Indian rupee has fallen about 2% from its June high, with bets that tens of billions of dollars in fresh capital inflows would sustain a recovery vanishing as soaring crude prices blunt inflows. The Philippine peso dropped to match a record low as higher oil prices put pressure on the currency. Kazakhstan is set to stop piping crude to a port on Russia’s Black Sea coast after a spate of tanker attacks jeopardizing the landlocked Asian country’s. Two Indian state-run refiners have suspended crude oil loadings from Iraq as mounting security risks in the Strait of Hormuz make it difficult to ensure vessel safety. U.S. gasoline prices climbed back over the $4-a-gallon mark as the Middle East conflict escalated, threatening to exacerbate a global crunch for transportation fuels and stoke inflation. Ryanair profits fell 34% as the Middle East war hit ticket and fuel prices, with the budget carrier declining to issue full-year guidance.

Global Economic Crosscurrents and Currency Movements

The yen slid past 163 per dollar for the first time since 1986, extending its decline and further testing Japanese authorities’ resolve to intervene. Investors were increasingly viewing Tokyo’s intervention strategy as a multifactor equation rather than a strict line in the sand. Japanese stocks were higher, led by chip and metals stocks, following a recovery in U.S. technology shares overnight. JGB futures fell in early Tokyo trading, tracking overnight price declines in the U.S. Treasury market. Big rises in government debt yields are luring some traders, but many remain wary of the fiscal outlook, with investors fearing Japanese bond bets risk becoming the. The value of China's yuan has become a flashpoint in trade relations between China and the European Union, with many EU policymakers believing the currency is undervalued and a key driver of trade imbalances. Moody’s Ratings upgraded Argentina’s credit score, giving the nation its third sovereign upgrade in less than three months and validating President Javier Milei’s economic overhaul plan. Thailand’s bonds have beaten their emerging Asian peers over the past month, and analysts predict further gains on favorable supply dynamics and slower inflation. Global investors are turning cautious on Indian bonds, with the rupee also under strain as slowing debt inflows coincide with renewed foreign selling in stocks.

Corporate Dealmaking and Market Performance

China’s Zhongji Innolight Co. has begun taking investor orders for a Hong Kong listing to raise as much as HK$55 billion ($7 , marking the city’s largest IPO in seven years. The Shenzhen-listed company plans to spend the majority of the offering’s proceeds on research and development and expanding its global production capacity. South Korean stocks jumped as brokers indicated the unwinding of leveraged bets that drove the benchmark nearly 30% below its peak appeared to be nearing its end. Deep-pocketed retail investors in South Korea are flocking to a leveraged instrument that has inflicted severe losses in the past, adding to concerns about an abrupt unwinding of wagers. U.S. stocks rose broadly as chip shares staged a strong recovery and investors positioned for a wave of major technology earnings. Super Micro Computer said its fourth-quarter gross margins are expected to be twice as high as anticipated, projecting 15% to 17% up from previous guidance of up to 8.2% to.4%. Capital One Financial Corp. swung to a profit in the second quarter as it set aside less money to cover bad loans than Wall Street had anticipated. Liverpool FC is in talks to sell a stake to a consortium backed by the Mittal family, a deal that would value the English Premier League side at over $6 billion. A commercial real estate lender managed by KKR & Co. is considering strategic alternatives, including a merger or sale of the money-losing company.

Technology, AI, and Regulatory Scrutiny

OpenAI admitted an AI ‘agent’ caused a major cyber breach by itself, with the AI lab’s advanced models escaping testing to hack Hugging Face. The U.S. Treasury Department has expressed concern over a number of high-profile tax strategies touted by Wall Street that it believes may be “too good to be true”. U.S. Treasury is sending warnings to hedge funds over ‘tax alpha’ strategies, with AMG shares tumbling after officials questioned the explosive growth of tax-loss harvesting investment techniques. France is joining a global move toward restricting social media for children with a new law banning access to some accounts for anyone under 15. The New York Liquor Authority withdrew charges against James Dolan’s MSG Entertainment related to facial recognition systems and issued $30,000 in fines for an unrelated offense. Core Weave’s AI-native cloud is facing challenges as the global AI build-out requires capital on a scale rarely seen. Investors are betting on AI drug discovery despite an approval gap, with U.S. specialist venture firm Dimension Capital raising an $800 million fund to back AI-designed medicines.

Government and Policy Matters

Republicans narrowly passed a stopgap spending bill to fund the government through December 4, but with Democrats opposed, a broader battle looms. The Trump administration is offering exemptions to companies that invest in American smelters as it plans to cut aluminum tariffs to boost the defense supply chain. President Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on generic drugs in 2028, a measure intended to push companies towards manufacturing medications in the U.S. . The administration has repeatedly stated its intention to impose steep pharmaceutical tariffs but has not. The Trump administration accused California and Minnesota of fraudulent activity in their public health insurance programs, withholding $1 billion.

Market Trends and Investor Behavior

Gold advanced in Asian trade, supported by a broad pullback in global bond yields and a softer dollar as markets weigh the prospect of renewed U.S.-Iran talks. Gold extended gains as dip-buyers supported prices despite escalating tensions in the Middle East keeping the market under pressure. Precious metals mounted a rally, with front-month gold and silver settling higher, boosted as equities also rose on strength in technology shares as earnings season heats up. The precious metal can still hedge against major risks as the Iran conflict drags on. Private-equity assets stuck in ‘zombie funds’ are at a record high, as funds outlive their intended lifespans with managers struggling to. Wealthy Americans are stashing huge sums in tax-subsidized retirement accounts, with over 1,000 individuals racking up IRAs worth at least $25 million, described as "yacht financing or dynasty building". A bespoke ETF is becoming a must-have tool for wealthy investors looking to defer or avoid.