Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 3, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Global Markets & Economics

The U.S. equity markets closed mixed for the holiday-shortened week, with the S&P 500 Index experiencing volatility as investors rotated out of high-flying momentum stocks that powered the previous quarter's rally. Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data for June, which saw employers add fewer jobs than a month earlier but with the unemployment rate ticking down, cooled rate-hike concernsrate ticking downrate ticking down. This data prompted investors to dial back bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase, causing Treasury yields to recover ground lost earlier in the week the week. Gold prices rose, poised to end the week on a stronger note as the jobs report eased rate-hike expectations, while copper tracked small swings in the U.S. dollar as traders assessed monetary policy outlooks. Emerging-market currencies, however, erased their year-to-date gains as speculation over higher U.S. interest rates fueled a dollar resurgence. The dollar itself remained weak against a basket of currencies following the disappointing nonfarm payrolls data.

Technology & AI

The artificial-intelligence trade is showing signs of strain, with cracks appearing in tech-heavy indexes as doubts about the profitability and sustainability of AI build-outs creep inbuild-outs. Investors are closely tracking AI token prices to decipher the next moves in this volatile sector. In the U.S., AI data centers are reportedly using significantly more water than most tech giants disclose, as the water consumption at power plants supplying these facilities far exceeds the usage within the data centers themselves. The White House is accelerating plans for AI model standards, with guidance expected soon, following government interventions in the rollouts of major AI models from companies like Anthropic and OpenAIfrom companies like. Meanwhile, the German software giant SAP is attempting to embrace AI without layoffs, betting on employees to reinvent their roles rather than be eliminated, though experts remain divided on its viability.

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures experienced a surge in production from OPEC members in June, as Persian Gulf nations restored exports through the Strait of Hormuz amid a reported peace accord between the U.S. and Iran. Russia, however, has significantly increased subsidies to its refiners, with payouts jumping more than six-fold in June, as Moscow aims to keep more fuel domestically and avoid shortages . China’s independent refiners are snapping up cheaper Middle Eastern oil, taking advantage of accelerated flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In market forecasts, Citi predicts Brent crude could fall to $60 a barrel by Christmas, anticipating a return to surplus in the oil market. Natural gas continues its ascent in the U.S., underpinned by fracking, strong power demand, and political support, though its long-term trajectory remains uncertain.

Corporate & Dealmaking

The global M&A market is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, driven by mega-takeovers that have already propelled dealmaking to a record $2.8 trillion, as companies and investors adjust to economic shifts influenced by the rise of AI. In private equity, CVC Capital Partners PlcIn private equity is set to finance its buyout of Italian food-ingredients maker Irca SpA with €1.2 billion ($1.4 of high-yield bonds, while Carlyle Group Inc. has hired banks for a potential initial public offering of its India-based healthcare revenue cycle management business. BlackRock partner Securitize is riding the Wall Street tokenization wave, aiming to bring traditional assets onto blockchains. Top investors have opposed a £5.7 billion private equity bid for the energy group DCC, with firms like Ninety One and Aviva Investors withholding support for the offer from KKR and Bridgepoint. In other deals, Chanel has acquired luxury Parisian shirtmaker Charvetother deals, and German tank supplier Renk acquired UK company David Brown Defence for $200 million.

Public Finance & Regulation

The U.S. Social Security Administration is set to introduce a process allowing parents to enroll newborns in "Trump Accounts" at the hospital simultaneously with their Social Security number registration. Wealth managers are facing warnings about "deliberate obfuscation" regarding fees, with industry leaders urging the use of plain English in disclosures. In Europe, money managers will benefit from revised disclosure requirements, as the EU agrees to cut ESG reporting obligations for asset managers, meaning they won't have to report ESG data on all held assets. A top official has recused herself from a National Health Service contract decision involving Palantir due to prior business links, following concerns raised by Members of Parliament.

Americas & Geopolitics

The United States is celebrating its 250th anniversary with nationwide events, though an oppressive heat wave has led to the cancellation of parades in Washington and Philadelphia and the temporary closure of the Great American State Fair on the National MallNational MallNational Mall. Calls to emergency medical services in Washington D.C. have climbed due to near 100-degree temperatures, with medical workers anticipating more heat-related illnesses during the anniversary celebrations. The extreme heat has been described by scientists as "virtually impossible" without climate change. President Trump has used his clemency power to pardon violators of the Clean Air Act and a major donor, actions that further undermine environmental laws. He has also intervened to push Assemblyman Robert Smullen out of a New York House race, preventing him from running on the Conservative Party line. A new mandatory disclosure revealed President Trump earned $2.2 billion during his first year back in the White House, though the MAGA base has remained quiet on this personal gain. In Washington D.C., nearly 5,000 National Guard troops were deployed for the holiday, a doubling of the initial number, with many spending time washing graffiti and picking up trash.

In international affairs, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the battlefield in Ukraine, vowing to take more territory and denouncing Ukraine's "imaginary achievements". U.S. officials reportedly believed Israel was plotting to kill Iranian negotiators, fearing such an attempt would derail peace talks. Argentina's central bank has extended maturities worth $6 billion on its repurchase agreements to ease the government debt burden heading into the 2027 presidential election . Denmark has opted to uninvite the U.S. from its Fourth of July party this year, reportedly in response to President Trump's stance on Greenland. Russia has hiked June subsidies to refiners as fuel shortages bite, with payouts jumping more than six-fold to keep more fuel at home.

Finance & Investment

Small stocks are experiencing their most significant run in decades, with the Russell 2000 index climbing approximately 22% in the first six months of the year. The Canadian stock benchmark climbed after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled a new pipeline project. Argentina is pushing $6 billion in repo maturities past the election, extending them to ease the government debt burden. Japan's annual wage negotiations concluded with average pay gains topping 5% for a third consecutive year, reinforcing the Bank of Japan's stance to maintain interest rates. Japanese companies have sold the highest amount of convertible bonds in over two decades in the first half, seeking cheaper financing as interest rates rise.

In the investment management space, Canada Pension Plan Investment Boardspace will invest $1.75 billion to support EQT AB’s artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. The European Central Bank is in a comfortable position after its June rate hike, as falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures in the euro zone. Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stressed the need for vigilance at the next rate decision, keeping options open for the ECB. In the U.K., bond investors are showing increased confidence in Andy Burnham’s fiscal discipline but remain hesitant about long-dated gilts.

Other Notable Developments

A high-profile wedding, attended by numerous celebrities and with a strict no-cell-phone policy, took place in New York City, drawing comparisons to the Met Gala. Taylor Swift wore a Dior gown designed by Jonathan Anderson for the event. In a surprising turn, Adam Sandler played a role as the wedding officiant. Public markets are experiencing a rotation trade, with weaker jobs data lifting hopes for a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes.

In other news, Stub Hub is under investigation by the Texas attorney general over alleged "ghost ticketing" at the World Cup. The Bureau of Prisons plans to close facilities housing thousands of inmates due to crumbling infrastructure, staffing shortages, and budget shortfalls. Separately, nine individuals were arrested in a federal crackdown on Los Angeles's sex-trafficking corridor, involving a scheme that utilized social media and violence to control victims.