Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 3, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Public Markets Roundup

Global Equities and Deals

Global equity markets experienced a mixed performance as investors grappled with economic data and geopolitical developments. U.S. stock markets recorded their best quarter since 2020, but investors are turning away at the fastest pace in over three months, with U.S. stock outflows reaching their highest point in over three months. European chip stocks rebounded after a significant selloff, mirroring gains in their Asian counterparts, though doubts about the profitability of the artificial intelligence buildout are creating volatility across tech-heavy indexes. In Asia, Indian textile stocks have emerged as standout performers, with some investors anticipating further gains from suppliers to global retailers like Walmart. The FTSE 100 index saw a second day of declines, indicating a broader cautious sentiment in the UK market.

The global mergers and acquisitions landscape saw a robust first half, with deal volume exceeding $2.5 trillion, setting a pace that is expected to continue. Private equity interest remains high, with KKR and Bridgepoint subsidiary's £5.7 billion bid for energy group DCC facing opposition from major investors including Ninety One, Aviva Investors, and Fidelity International, who oppose the offer. Carlyle Group is preparing for a potential $400 million IPO of its India-based healthcare revenue cycle management business, hiring JM Financial and Goldman Sachs for advisory roles. Meanwhile, GFL Environmental Inc. is considering a take-private transaction after attracting interest buyout firms. In a rescue deal, iCON Infrastructure is set to acquire Northern Fiber Holding Gmb H, a struggling German fiber-network operator formerly owned by UBS Asset Management.

Macroeconomic Trends and Central Bank Policy

Economic data continued to shape market sentiment, with cooler-than-expected U.S. jobs data providing some relief and contributing to a weakening dollarweakening dollar. This data has eased investor expectations for immediate interest rate hikes, with traders increasingly pricing in a September Fed rate cut. However, some economists suggest the Federal Reserve will still need to raise rates this year, citing labor market weakness in contrast to other economic indicators. The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be in a strong position following its June rate hike, with falling oil prices easing inflationary pressures in the eurozone . Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stressed the need for continued vigilance regarding inflation risks, keeping options open for the next rate decision. Emmanuel Moulin, another Governing Council member, stated the ECB is comfortable after its June increase, benefiting from moderating price pressures.

Argentina's central bank has extended maturities on $6 billion of repurchase agreements to alleviate government debt pressure ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Peru's inflation unexpectedly accelerated in June, remaining above the central bank's target due to rising food costs and the global energy shock. In commodity markets, OPEC's crude oil production surged in June, with Persian Gulf members restoring exports through the Strait of Hormuz following a reported peace accord between the U.S. and Iran. Despite this, Citi forecasts Brent crude could fall to $60 a barrel by Christmas, predicting a return to surplus in the oil market. Russia has increased subsidies to its refiners, with payouts jumping more than six-fold in June to avoid domestic fuel shortages .

Sector-Specific Developments

The artificial intelligence (AI) sector continues to drive significant investment, with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board committing $1.75 billion to support EQT AB's AI infrastructure buildout. However, cracks are appearing in the AI trade, causing volatility in tech indexes and raising questions about the sustainability of the current buildout. Investors are closely monitoring AI token prices for clues on the next moves in this dynamic market. Water usage at data centers is also under scrutiny, with reports indicating that AI data centers consume significantly more water than most tech giants disclose, primarily through the power plants supplying them. The frenzy around AI spending has propelled a surge in semiconductor stocks, tightening the grip of tech on Wall Street.

In the mining sector, Chilean companies SQM and Codelco are planning to boost lithium output from their partnership by over 70% in a long-term bet on battery demand . Iron ore futures briefly topped $100 a ton as a Chinese state-backed buyer signaled potential restrictions on some Fortescue Ltd. inventories held in mainland ports. The fashion group Burberry reported its operating profit again under a new chief, prompting its top team to buy into the company through a new reward policy. In the defense sector, France's Thales will record a charge in the first half after Germany scrapped its F126 frigate program. Conversely, a joint venture involving U.K.'s BAE Systems, Italy's Leonardo, and Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries secured a $6.14 billion contract to develop a new stealth fighter jet. German tank supplier Renk acquired UK company David Brown Defence for $200 million, the latter having been involved in the production of Spitfire aircraft.

Regulatory and Legal Matters

Wealth managers are facing scrutiny over fee transparency, with industry leaders warning of "deliberate obfuscation" and regulators urging the use of "plain English". The European Union has agreed to revise ESG reporting requirements for asset managers, meaning they will no longer need to report ESG data on all assets held. In the U.S., Stub Hub is under investigation by the Texas attorney general regarding alleged "ghost ticketing" for the World Cup, with probes into whether the company is failing to provide purchased tickets. Shell faces allegations of misleading UK courts in a long-running pollution case concerning environmental damage in the Niger Delta, with the trial set to begin next year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is joining a backlash against opaque debt instruments, initiating a crackdown in Nigeria on total return swaps that are seen as undermining efforts to improve transparency in emerging market sovereign debt. The Bureau of Prisons will close facilities housing thousands of inmates due to crumbling infrastructure, staffing shortages, and budget shortfalls.

Political and Geopolitical Developments

Political maneuvering and international tensions continued to influence market narratives. Reports suggest U.S. officials believed Israel was planning to assassinate Iranian negotiators, a move that could have derailed peace talks. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz appear to be easing, with ship transits quadrupling over the past week as tankers cautiously return, following a reported ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Russia has been increasing subsidies to its refiners to maintain domestic fuel supplies amidst shortages, with some Russian citizens expressing frustration over long lines at gas stations. The war in Ukraine sees Crimea becoming increasingly crucial, with escalating drone strikes, fuel shortages, and power cuts impacting the region. Meanwhile, NATO's upcoming meeting in Ankara is being called upon to close sanctions loopholes that continue to fund Russia's war effort, particularly as oil prices decline.

In U.S. domestic politics, President Trump's recent financial disclosures revealed significant personal gains, with earnings of $2.2 billion during his first year back in the White House, a level with few known global precedents. Trump's stance against heavy U.S. AI regulation was reiterated by an outgoing tech adviser, who stated the president opposes a centralized regulator amidst growing backlash against AI. A judge blocked the Postal Service from imposing restrictions on mail-in ballots, marking the second instance of a judicial block on new curbs by Trump on voting by mail. Two federal courts have also blocked a Trump administration rule that could have narrowed eligibility for student loan forgiveness public servants. In New York, Assemblyman Robert Smullen will not run on the Conservative Party line in his bid for a House seat, following intervention from Trump.

Other Market News

The market for lithium is poised for increased output from the SQM-Codelco venture in Chile, aiming to boost production by over 70% in a long-term bet on battery demand. In the UK, the Bank of England plans to proceed with measures to limit hedge fund leverage in the gilt market, a move criticized for potentially increasing funding costs. Associated British Foods' sugar unit is weighing on the business ahead of a Primark spinoff, with market conditions deteriorating and the unit expected to post a loss. Ipsen is set to acquire Swiss biotech Memo for potentially over $800 million, marking its second acquisition this week. Yara plans to purchase a Texas ammonia plant for $1.3 billion, diversifying its energy exposure and lowering costs. Nestle's coffee division is exploring a push into matcha amid coffee bean price volatility and a desire to attract younger customers.

Investors are reportedly warming to Andy Burnham's fiscal promises in the UK, but long-end gilts remain "unloved". Digging into the energy sector, Sembcorp Industries and other companies are featured in market talks. National Grid is investing $1.75 billion in Joulent for U.S. energy infrastructure development, securing a 35% stake in the company. In the retail sector, Kroger has agreed to acquire food and pharmacy retailer Giant Eagle for $1.65 billion. The financial services sector is also seeing activity, with Hamilton Lane targeting $220 million for its first China yuan fund to invest in discounted Chinese assets. HSBC and Standard Chartered are exploring significant risk transfers for Asia-linked portfolios. Standard Chartered is also targeting mid-sized African companies for debt sales, following a successful $50 million green bond placement. The art market is facing challenges, with artists alleging an "epic betrayal" by a collapsed fund that pooled artworks for over 20 years. Forvis Mazars has been fined £600,000 for "pervasive" audit failings in its audit of Studio Retail.