Citi analyst Luis Hilado slashed Sembcorp Industries profit projections by 6%-11% for recurring earnings and 10%-14% for reported profits through 2028. The Singapore energy provider faces margin pressure from rising upstream gas prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions, while weather disruptions and currency weakness hamper its Indian renewables business. Shares fell 3.7% to S$5.96.

The Strait of Hormuz reopening has reduced immediate LNG supply risks, but shipping flows remain sluggish compared to crude recovery. ANZ strategist Daniel Hynes warns that delayed LNG trade normalization will keep export capacity constrained through third quarter, creating tighter global gas markets as Asian demand strengthens under El Nino conditions.

Crude futures rebounded ahead of the July 4th holiday, with WTI settling at $68.69 and Brent at $71.80 per barrel. Despite fragile U.S.-Iran negotiations over transit fees, Citi's Francesco Martoccia expects de-escalation incentives to produce a lasting agreement. Physical markets show weaker demand and smaller inventory draws than anticipated.

The analyst recommends selling summer rallies, projecting Brent could reach $60-$65 by year-end. Citi maintains its buy rating on Sembcorp while cutting the target to S$6.92, reflecting confidence that current headwinds will ease despite near-term volatility.