Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 1, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Presidential Finances & Policy

President Trump's financial dealings have generated over $2 billion in the past year, creating potential conflicts of interest that exceed those of any predecessor financial interests intersect. His administration's policy decisions have demonstrably benefited his business interests, including a move to ban a synthetic version of kratom, which paved the way for increased sales of rival botanical supplements from companies that had actively lobbied for the change kratom allies. Furthermore, Trump made substantial gains, up to $1.4 billion, from cryptocurrency deals in 2025, even as a majority of investors in his memecoin experienced losses Trump crypto windfall. These financial activities, including over 22,000 stock transactions in 2025, have drawn criticism for profiting off the presidency in ways that demean the office opinion honest graft. His administration also declined to immediately renew the North American trade agreement, leaving businesses uncertain about future trade terms with Mexico and Canada USMCA trade deal. In a separate development, a judge blocked the Postal Service from imposing restrictions on mail-in ballots for the second time, impacting voting by mail blocks mail-in ballots.

AI & Technology

The White House is accelerating plans to establish standards for AI models, with guidance expected as soon as next week, following government interventions in the rollout of systems from Anthropic and OpenAI. The rapid embrace of AI is also transforming Madison Avenue, with brands adopting sophisticated tools to cut costs and automate ad production AI embrace. This AI boom is driving the creation of new games, though concerns remain about big developers dominating the market and potentially eroding gamer trust AI new games. The potential global fallout from the AI boom is a growing concern for economists economists alarm. Meanwhile, Grindr's CEO has imposed AI across the company, aiming for all code to be written by artificial intelligence to make the company "leaner" CEO adopted AI. Neon acquired the film "Artificial," which focuses on OpenAI's chief Sam Altman, after Amazon withdrew from the project. Chip stocks are heading for their best quarter ever, fueled by demand for AI equipment, though recent volatility has caused some swings chip stocks best quarter.

Market Movements & IPOs

Global merger and acquisition volumes are expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, driven by mega-deals totaling $2.8 trillion, reflecting companies and investors adjusting to economic shifts brought on by the rise of AI mega takeovers. Bending Spoons SpA, the Italian tech group behind Vimeo and Evernote, surged 40% on its Nasdaq debut, raising $1.68 billion in one of Europe's largest technology IPOs this year Bending Spoons IPO. Ride-sharing company Uber-backed Lime also saw its shares climb after raising $167 million in its IPO, underwritten by Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies. In contrast, Franco-German tank maker KNDS postponed its initial public offering, citing market conditions and an inability to convince investors to back its €12 billion-plus valuation KNDS postpones IPO, KNDS IPO. South Korean fashion retailer Musinsa, backed by KKR & Co., is expanding its physical store presence in China and Japan ahead of a potential IPO.

Fixed Income & Currencies

Global treasurers are driving record sales of Kangaroo bonds, with issuance reaching all-time highs as Asian capital floods the market and competes for deals record Kangaroo bond sales. Indonesia's bond market has attracted significant foreign investment, with inflows reaching a record monthly high after the government eliminated taxes on foreign investors Indonesian bonds inflow. Japanese government bond yields have risen as concerns grow over fiscal expansion plans, despite strong buying from Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. super-long bond yields rise. The yen is facing medium-term risk of sliding to 200 per dollar, an extreme but possible scenario for some investors yen crisis scenario. South Korean banks are expanding trading desks in London and Seoul to prepare for the won's round-the-clock trading, which begins next week 24-hour won market. European inflation has cooled more than expected, with German and French inflation rates easing as oil prices drop, alleviating pressure on the European Central Bank to further increase interest rates German inflation eases.

Commodities & Energy

Oil futures extended their decline for a third day as flows through the Strait of Hormuz surged and indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran showed signs of progress oil extends decline. US crude grades are trading at a discount again as supply increases through the Strait of Hormuz and demand for American exports fades US crude grades discount. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased following attacks on two ships, raising concerns about shipowners' willingness to traverse the waterway Hormuz traffic drops. German inflation has eased due to the drop in global oil prices, contributing to a broader slowdown in the region German inflation eases. China's petrochemical trade has been significantly impacted by the war in Iran, allowing plants to boost exports and ease a glut of key building blocks for plastics and other materials Chinese petrochemicals trade. U.S. natural gas futures remained range-bound despite hot weather increasing cooling demand, as abundant production and inventories capped gains natural gas futures fall.

Corporate Dealmaking & Restructuring

CMA CGM is set to acquire FedEx Supply Chain for $1.4 billion, a move that will expand the container line's contract logistics business in the U.S. Alcoa has agreed to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets in a cash-and-stock deal valued at up to $5.6 billion. Lenders to Tungsten Automation, backed by Clearlake and TA, have agreed to a debt restructuring pact following a steep slide in the software company's debt prices. Ailing UK retailer TG Jones Retail Holdings secured court approval for a financial restructuring that will close over 100 stores and reduce rents to avoid insolvency. In Peru, Keiko Fujimori's political movement returns to power with a narrow victory in a divided country Peru election.

Other Market Developments

The S&P 500 rose almost 15% in the second quarter, marking its strongest performance since 2020, with many analysts remaining optimistic about continued corporate earnings growth driven by artificial intelligence stocks strong quarter. In a mixed trading session, U.S. stocks edged lower as investors parsed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh for clues on interest rate policy. Gold and silver futures experienced a positive start to July, advancing for the second consecutive session gold silver gain. Alibaba Group and U.S. payment processor AUS Merchant Services will pay $600 million in a DOJ settlement over allegations of allowing the sale and import of illegal pharmaceuticals into the U.S. BlackRock's head of its private credit fund is departing following months of losses and a regulatory probe. Michael Burry has cited the "beginning of the end" with new AI short bets, targeting stocks like Tesla, Applied Materials, and an ETF of chip stocks. The SEC is rethinking its oversight of the ETF industry, indicating it does not want to be in the business of picking ETF winners SEC ETF oversight.