Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 1, 2026, 5:30 AM ET

Public Markets Overview

Global equity futures pointed lower as the second half of the year kicked off with investor sentiment weighed down by expectations of continued interest rate hikes. This cautious mood cast a shadow over markets, with U.S. stock futures indicating a weaker opening in early European trade. Adding to the uncertainty, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech at the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal was a closely watched event, with markets attempting to glean any hints about future monetary policy decisions ahead of his comments. Gold prices also fell below $4,000 per troy ounce as rate-hike fears intensified.

Interest Rates & Central Banks

European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel maintained flexibility regarding potential interest rate actions for the next two meetings, citing ongoing uncertainty. He also indicated that Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, is well-positioned to oversee the nation’s planned state-backed pension fund should it be tasked with such a role according to Nagel. In a separate development, eurozone government bond yields opened higher, mirroring a rise in Treasury yields, as investors awaited eurozone inflation data. The Bank of Japan's cautious policy path also saw stronger demand at its two-year bond sale.

Currencies

The Japanese yen hit a fresh 40-year low against the dollar, prompting traders to remain on high alert for potential currency intervention by the Japanese government. Japan’s currency chief suggested that intervention was an effective strategy and highlighted close communication between Tokyo and Washington regarding foreign exchange as the yen hovers near a four-decade low. Mizuho Bank noted that the yen's historic slump is forcing investors to re-evaluate traditional strategies for gauging currency movements defying rates rulebook. Meanwhile, bullish bets on the Chinese yuan began to fade as options traders unwound positions following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot. South Korea’s won slid toward its weakest level since the global financial crisis, as the dollar strengthened and overseas investors divested local equities leading Asian currency retreats.

Commodities & Energy

Oil prices steadied amid ongoing peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and a recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, following the largest quarterly drop since the pandemic. Goldman Sachs flagged a potential return to an oil surplus as the impact of the Iran war wanes and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes signaling an oil surplus. European natural gas prices rose amid supply uncertainty due to disruptions in the Middle East and persistent heatwaves across Europe. French natural gas consumers are bracing for higher bills due to network maintenance costs over the coming decades, as falling demand means infrastructure financing will fall on fewer users higher network costs. Spain, however, plans to lift its 2026 economic-growth forecast despite the Iran war, anticipating only a limited impact.

Mergers & Acquisitions

Global M&A activity surpassed $2.5 trillion in the first half of the year, driven by a surge in deals that suggests a strong pace will continue. In the UK, the competition and markets authority launched an in-depth probe into the planned £2 billion takeover of fibre broadband provider Netomnia by Telefónica and Liberty Global, potentially delaying sector consolidation probe into £2bn deal. French shipping group CMA CGM is nearing a $1.4 billion deal for FedEx's logistics unit, aiming to expand its U.S. presence and strengthen its supply chain footprint deal for FedEx unit. US building materials supplier Martin Marietta struck a $13.5 billion deal for limestone supplier Lhoist North America, marking its largest acquisition to date strikes $13.5bn deal. Swiss hospital landlord Infracore is targeting a $1 billion valuation in its IPO, with the offering to consist of up to 5.6 million shares targets $1bn valuation. KKR and SK are jointly launching a $1.30 billion renewable-energy platform in Korea, which is set to become the nation's largest for the sector launch $1.3bn platform.

Technology & AI

Abu Dhabi's MGX has raised $49 billion for one of the largest funds dedicated to artificial intelligence deals, positioning the firm as a significant investor in the sector raises $49bn AI fund. The U.S. has lifted restrictions on Anthropic's most powerful AI models, allowing the company to re-release its technologies and de-escalate a dispute with the Trump administration lifts ban on AI models. A study of 22,000 U.S. companies indicates that heavy corporate AI spenders are increasing staff faster than their peers, challenging fears that generative AI will lead to widespread job losses AI spenders add staff. However, scholars warn that the "unknown unknowns" of using AI in the workplace may undermine its advertised benefits AI disrupts work. French AI startup Anthropic is launching Claude Science in a push for pharmaceutical revenue, with potential use cases in rendering 3D protein structures and drug discovery launches Claude Science.

Corporate & Equity Markets

Alphabet Inc. saw its stock surge over the past year, while Associated British Foods Plc reported falling sales at its Primark chain ahead of its separation from the conglomerate's food divisions. Galderma Group AG shares slumped the most in over a year after the FDA rejected its rival Botox treatment, Relfydess. In the UK, Associated British Foods' sugar unit is expected to post a loss, weighing on the business as it prepares for the Primark spinoff sugar unit weighs on ABF. European bank stocks rallied 21% in the second quarter, with investors anticipating further gains. Chinese brokerage stocks are poised for their strongest monthly gain since October, driven by increased trading activity and IPO issuance eye best month. India's equity capital markets saw Kotak Mahindra Capital Co. reclaim the top spot in the first half of the year, positioning it for a dominant role in a year of significant upcoming listings reclaims India ECM lead.

Other Notable Developments

Tech deals accounted for a record $302 billion of global issuance in the first six months of the year, raising concerns about investor capacity for upcoming IPOs tech deals surge. The U.S. government has blocked a new rule that could have narrowed eligibility for a student loan forgiveness program for public servants blocks loan forgiveness rule. Sex abuse survivors reached a $395 million settlement with the Archdiocese of San Francisco, resolving approximately 530 claims of abuse by clergy members reaches $395m settlement. Spain plans to key electricity generation tax as part of government efforts to stimulate the economy. The Swiss National Bank intervened by selling francs in the first quarter to prevent a surge in the currency's value at the outbreak of the Iran war intervened to halt franc rush. South Africa plans to tap existing rand-denominated sukuk bonds for its funding needs this fiscal year plans to tap sukuk.