Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 24, 2026, 11:32 PM ET

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures tumbled in Asian trading as prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz gained momentum, with U.S. officials signaling a deal with Iran could be imminent despite President Trump acknowledging the agreement "isn't even fully negotiated". A liquefied natural gas tanker bound for India became the first to transit the strait since hostilities began, while Iraqi crude shipments resumed as supertankers navigated beyond the U.S. blockade line. The war-driven supply shock has disrupted naphtha flows critical to Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, with U.S. oil producers ramping output to capitalize on elevated prices following a 40% cost jump that has dented presidential approval ratings. In China, coking coal surged by its daily limit after a deadly mine explosion in Shanxi province raised fears of broader supply disruptions, testing the limits of Xi Jinping's energy security push.

Fixed Income & Credit Markets

Indian government lenders wilt under rising yields that climbed to two-year highs amid Iran war concerns, with a Nifty gauge of state-owned banks falling 6% this month. Multi-year high swap rates are driving debt fund managers into complex trades to boost fixed-income returns, while Japan's bond yield surge is widening the performance gap between regional lenders with weaker investment portfolios versus those with stronger holdings. Strategists warn yields will stay elevated even if the Iran conflict ends, as other factors drive longer-term borrowing costs. European Central Bank officials signal hiking pressure with Governing Council member Martin Kocher stating a rate increase is likely next month unless a sustainable peace deal emerges, while Yannis Stournaras emphasized that preserving ECB credibility makes an increase inevitable. Meanwhile, bond traders price in Fed tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh as they bet on interest-rate hikes this year.

Currencies & Foreign Exchange

The Australian dollar strengthened against the greenback in Asian trade on Middle East peace deal hopes, while Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra suggested the rupee may now be undervalued following its recent depreciation. Asian currencies face pressure from soaring oil prices and a surging dollar, testing foreign-exchange reserves built up after the 1997 crisis. The euro-dollar exchange rate remains sensitive to Iran war developments, with Commerzbank noting the conflict's trajectory is key for the currency pair. In Canada, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan see further weakness ahead for the loonie as tame inflation readings fuel expectations for Bank of Canada rate cuts.

Equities & Market Sentiment

AI-driven retail trading fever gripped Japanese markets as average daily trading volume on Tokyo Stock Exchange's prime market almost doubled in 12 months, with equal-weighted S&P 500 performance flat since the war began despite tech-heavy indices rallying. The S&P 500 clinched its longest weekly winning streak since 2023, rising for eight consecutive weeks on artificial intelligence enthusiasm. U.S. defense delays threaten Japan's access to Tomahawk missiles, with deliveries potentially two years late as the Pentagon works to replenish stocks depleted in the Middle East campaign.

M&A & Corporate Developments

Jardine Matheson is nearing a $2.4 billion acquisition of Australia's I-MED Radiology Network, which would create the country's largest medical diagnostics provider. Trafigura withdrew significant copper volumes from London Metal Exchange warehouses as lucrative trading opportunities emerged in U.S. and Chinese markets. In Brazil, Itausa, GIC and Equipav are forming a consortium to bid for Copasa in the sanitation company's privatization process. Delivery Hero received a €10 billion Uber takeover approach while also fielding interest from Door Dash, as German food delivery groups attract consolidation attention.

Regional Banking & Financial Services

Japan's financial regulator is urging listed companies to deploy cash reserves for long-term business investment rather than shareholder returns, as regional bank stocks diverge amid rising bond yields. ECB summoned banks for emergency meetings to address flaws exposed by latest AI models, stressing seriousness of risks to the financial system. Commerzbank rallied shareholders in its fight for independence from UniCredit, providing rare cheer for long-suffering investors at its annual meeting.

Supply Chain & Industrial Impact

War-driven supply shocks are roiling Asian manufacturing, with naphtha shortages disrupting production in Japan and South Korea. U.S. defense supply chains face severe delays as missile inventories deplete faster than replacement rates, affecting allies including Japan. The chemical crisis in Garden Grove highlights industrial vulnerabilities as firefighters struggle to prevent a toxic methyl methacrylate tank from leaking or exploding. China's coal mine blast underscores safety trade-offs in Xi Jinping's energy security strategy, with world-beating production shielding the economy from worst-case scenarios.