Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 24, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures slipped 1.3% in early Asian trade amid prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while gold prices climbed near $2,340 as investors priced in a potential U.S.-Iran deal. European natural gas dropped during Asian trading on similar optimism, extending the relief rally that saw Iraqi crude shipments resume through the Persian Gulf. Despite easing geopolitical tensions, U.S. oil producers increased output to capture higher prices, while aluminum prices surged 8% in Shanghai, catapulting China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo past the $48 billion mark. The first LNG tanker for India exited Hormuz since the conflict began, signaling potential supply chain normalization.

Fixed Income & Rates

Japanese government bonds extended their rally tracking gains in U.S. Treasuries as traders increasingly price in a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year. The European Central Bank is set to lift its inflation outlook when policymakers meet next month, with Governing Council member Martin Kocher signaling a likely rate hike unless a sustainable Iran peace deal materializes. Bond traders are fully pricing in a 2026 Fed hike as war-driven energy costs push the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rapidly toward 4%. Japanese regional banks face widening performance gaps as yield rises deepen the divide between lenders with strong versus weak investment portfolios.

Equities & Market Structure

The S&P 500 clinches its longest weekly winning streak since 2023, buoyed by artificial intelligence enthusiasm even as the equal-weighted index remains flat since the Iran conflict began. AI-focused IPO mania signals a potential market top as SpaceX targets the largest-ever offering with expected valuation exceeding $150 billion. Short sellers reaped over $2.3 billion betting against gambling companies amid prediction market competition, while Korean investors gain access to single-stock leveraged ETFs in the world's most volatile market. Buyout bankers are pre-selling debt heavily to secure cheap financing amid uncertain market conditions.

Currencies & Emerging Markets

The dollar held near multi-week highs while the euro weakened slightly, with the course of the Iran war dictating euro-dollar dynamics. Asian currencies came under pressure as soaring oil prices and a stronger dollar tested foreign-exchange reserves across the region. Mexico's mid-May inflation slowed in line with expectations after the central bank completed its easing cycle, while Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan see the Canadian dollar weakening amid tame inflation readings. Hungary's new premier warned of fiscal constraints left by his predecessor, casting doubt on projected 2% growth this year.

Geopolitical Market Impact

Market disruption from the Iran conflict continues to ripple globally. Qatar Airways will skip staff bonuses this year after losing billions from flight cancellations, while U.S. missile deliveries to allies face two-year delays as Pentagon stocks are depleted. China restricted chemical exports to the U.S. under new fentanyl crackdown controls, and exported copper volumes from Trafigura surged as trading opportunities emerged in U.S. and Chinese markets. Regional mediators rushed to save the ceasefire as Pakistan and Qatar dispatched teams to Iran amid threats of resumed warfare.