Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

IPO Frenzy and Wall Street's Biggest Bet

Wall Street is preparing for a torrent of megacap tech listings as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic race to go public, a move that has already ignited trading desks and sent satellite stocks soaring. The aerospace company plans to launch an upgraded Starship on a pre-IPO test flight, having spent roughly $15 billion developing its next-generation rocket, while projecting a $26.5 trillion market opportunity in artificial intelligence to attract IPO investors. Wall Street banks are competing for roughly $1 billion in fees from the SpaceX listing, with Goldman Sachs eclipsing Morgan Stanley's Michael Grimes as lead advisor amid the celebrated banker's stint in the Trump administration. Meanwhile, OpenAI is preparing for a $1 trillion IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as underwriters, and cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance are rushing to launch derivatives linked to SpaceX. The hype has spilled into European equities, with French satellite operator Eutelsat jumping more than 17% to a one-year high and German satellite developer OHB hitting an all-time high after climbing almost 12%. Cerebras' $6.4 billion raise has further signaled investor appetite ahead of what could be the largest wave of tech IPOs in years, while Deep Fission Inc. files for a $156 million IPO as nuclear startups ride the AI data center power boom.

Bond Rout and Mortgage Pain

The Iran war's energy shock continues to reshape fixed-income markets, with long-term bond yields surging to levels last seen in 2007 and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to its highest point since the lead-up to the global financial crisis. The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.5%, the highest since the war began, squeezing homebuyers as inflation concerns mount and the conflict shows no sign of resolution. Fed Richmond President Tom Barkin warned that repeated supply shocks are testing the inflation anchor, a sentiment echoed by a majority of Fed officials who embraced the possibility of higher rates at the latest meeting. The ripple effects extend to housing, with home builder Hovnanian swinging to a $284,000 quarterly loss as the housing market remains frozen and home buyers hammered by the war-fueled bond rout. Across Europe, the European Central Bank's Pierre Wunsch said a June rate hike is quite likely if the war doesn't end, while French government bond yields bucked the global selloff and hit nine-month lows. China's bonds also diverged, with yields reaching a nine-month low as local liquidity kept anchor them despite the global debt selloff, offering a rare safe haven in an otherwise broad-based rout.

European Earnings and Retail Shifts

European stocks rose for a second consecutive day on strong earnings, with Citigroup's Beata Manthey forecasting another 5% gain by year-end driven by an explosion of earnings. Yet beneath the optimism, cracks are showing. The IMF cut France's growth forecast and warned of high uncertainty as the Iran war hits economic activity, prompting Budget Minister David Amiel to pledge €710 million in new aid to offset rising energy costs. UK retailers are also under pressure: Morrisons is shutting 100 lossmaking stores, blaming government policy, while leaseholders in older buildings face average service charges of £7,300 per year for years of underfunding. In consumer spending, Walmart, Target and TJ Maxx reported sales increases as shoppers squeezed by higher fuel prices flock to bargain items, and Ralph Lauren logged higher quarterly sales on strength in China. BT Group appears to be getting on top of its threat from alternative network providers, while Urban Outfitters posted record first-quarter sales with revenue climbing 11% to $1.48 billion. The broader picture suggests a bifurcated consumer: spending continues but only at the low end.

Geopolitical Risk and Commodities

The Iran conflict is reshaping commodity markets and global trade flows. Jet fuel prices have surged since the war began, vindicating airlines that hedged against price spikes, while Turkey's state lenders sold about $6 billion to defend the lira on Thursday and liquidated almost all of its U.S. Treasury holdings in March. Russian officials announced plans to sell government bonds denominated in Chinese yuan, reflecting a pivot toward Beijing as Western capital withdraws. Nickel prices climbed after reports of further output cuts in Indonesia, and fertilizer costs spiked in Brazil at the worst possible time for farmers, raising risks for the country's farm economy. In a rare move, the U.S. cleared a Dubai-based scrap dealer to buy ships sanctioned for Iran activity, potentially allowing more vessels to exit the shadow fleet. Indonesia sold $3.45 billion of dollar and euro bonds amid the selloff, while Singapore overtook Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest stock market, signaling investor confidence in the city-state's reforms.

Private Credit and Market Caution

Private credit markets are undergoing a structural shift as managers turn to trading loans to dump troubled assets and hunt for bargains, marking the industry's first real stress test. Kalshi, the prediction market firm, is now worth more than $20 billion after retail investors gained the ability to own a slice of the company, while AMP Ltd. is trimming its private credit holdings citing an increasingly frothy market. Retail investors are piling into options income ETFs in search for yield, and Japan's efforts to fund AI data center power demand have accelerated the use of new vanadium flow battery technology. On the M&A front, Parker-Hannifin agreed to buy a KKR-owned Circor unit for $2.55 billion, and Optimum Communications is negotiating new financing that could dilute its existing debt collateral. The confluence of rate pressure, geopolitical risk and compressed margins is forcing capital to move faster than regulators can monitor, a dynamic that Senators are now trying to curb through a bill targeting the Treasury's $219 billion Exchange Stabilization Fund.