Public Markets 3d Briefing – Mar 18, 2026

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Last updated: March 18, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Turmoil Drives Energy Markets

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have sent global energy benchmarks soaring, with Brent crude topping $110 a barrel wsj.com following aggressive attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Strikes targeted Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal ft.com, the Habshan gas facility in the UAE ft.com, and Iran’s South Pars gasfield ft.com, sparking concerns over supply continuity in the region. The disruption has been acutely felt in the UAE, where the key port of Fujairah suspended oil loadings bloomberg.com, compounding earlier halts and causing shipping insurance costs through the Strait of Hormuz to skyrocket bloomberg.com. In response to the crisis, the U.S. suspended the Jones Act nytimes.com temporarily to allow domestic fuel to flow more easily between U.S. ports, a measure designed to ease gas price pressures nytimes.com. Simultaneously, the war is causing supply chain shifts, with fertilizer giant Yara curbing production in India bloomberg.com due to curtailed gas feedstock and prompting Asian nations to revert back to coal for power generation nytimes.com. Despite the chaos, Saudi Arabia has already restored over half its normal oil exports bloomberg.com by utilizing its Hormuz bypass contingency plan.

Markets are grappling with the conflicting signals from Washington regarding monetary policy as geopolitical risk heightens inflation fears. Despite soaring oil prices threatening to accelerate inflation, President Trump renewed his demand for the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs nytimes.com, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank is in ‘a difficult situation’ wsj.com. The Fed’s earlier messaging—that further rate cuts were not guaranteed—has already caused the bond market to price out immediate rate cut hopes bloomberg.com, a sentiment echoed by JPMorgan Investment Management’s Bob Michele bloomberg.com, who suggested the Fed was trying to send a “don’t worry about it” signal regarding oil shocks. In fixed income, overseas holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased in January bloomberg.com, led by Japan, even as investors remain wary of administration threats concerning international asset demand. Meanwhile, Brazil is beginning a cautious path toward easing, with modest rate cuts expected to support the local currency bloomberg.com and ease short-term yield pressure, a move that contrasts with the general market anxiety.

Wall Street dealmakers are being urged by major advisory banks not to postpone strategic mergers and acquisitions due to current volatility, as Goldman Sachs advised clients not to wait for perfection bloomberg.com. While some M&A financing is slowing, with JPMorgan halting the $5.3 billion Qualtrics debt deal ft.com amid AI sector jitters, overall deal timelines may merely be delayed, not derailed, according to Lazard’s global M&A head bloomberg.com. In corporate finance, Wells Fargo & Co. is hiring Derek Keller from UBS to lead its M&A structuring efforts bloomberg.com, signaling continued strategic investment in deal execution capabilities. In the private markets, distress is becoming apparent, with S&P Global Ratings cutting the outlook on Cliffwater LLC’s private credit fund to negative bloomberg.com due to rising redemption requests risking liquidity pressure. This caution is spreading, as Bank of America advises clients on positions against European private credit exposures ft.com, though analysts maintain that current woes are not a repeat of the 2008 Financial Crisis bloomberg.com. On the IPO front, legal data firm Relativity, backed by Silver Lake, is tapping banks for a U.S. listing bloomberg.com.

Stock market sentiment has been heavily influenced by the oil shock, though some defensive and retail names posted gains. Asian equities faced initial declines as the Iran conflict weighed heavily on sentiment bloomberg.com, but U.S. stocks managed to climb as Brent crude pulled back from $105 wsj.com following renewed efforts to restore Persian Gulf flows. In the retail sector, value chain Five Below Inc. reported a fourth-quarter profit of $238.2 million wsj.com and saw shares rise 7% in after-hours trading following an upbeat fiscal 2026 outlook bloomberg.com. Conversely, shares of government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dropped to their lowest level in over a year bloomberg.com amid investor uncertainty regarding the Trump administration’s plans for their stock sale. Furthermore, the trend of corporate restructuring continues, with spinoff stocks outperforming the broader S&P 500 bloomberg.com, leading even Madison Square Garden Sports to reportedly consider a break-up.

Gold prices showed technical resilience, rising in early trade following a sharp 2.2% overnight drop in front-month futures wsj.com, as traders sought a technical rebound near the $2,340 level. Meanwhile, the surge in energy prices is having uneven effects across industrial metals; while aluminum prices have jumped to a four-year high bloomberg.com, Chinese buyers are proving reluctant to absorb the redirected raw materials bloomberg.com. In the technology sector, Micron Technology’s sales nearly tripled wsj.com, driven by robust demand and a tight industry supply for memory chips. On the corporate deal front, Public Storage agreed to acquire National Storage Affiliates in a $5.63 billion all-stock transaction wsj.com, creating a combined entity valued near $57 billion. Separately, the luxury electric vehicle maker Voyah Automobile Technology Co. is set for its Hong Kong debut bloomberg.com without raising any new capital in the listing.

In corporate governance, major banks advising Janus Henderson, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, are reportedly telling the asset manager to reject a deal from Trian and General Catalyst wsj.com in favor of alternative suitors. In the food sector, Unilever and Kraft Heinz engaged in preliminary talks over a potential merger ft.com valued in the tens of billions, reflecting struggles against subdued consumer demand. On the political front, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is creating economic windfalls for rivals, as the U.S. war on Iran benefits Vladimir Putin by diverting global attention ft.com. Furthermore, the administration’s justifications for military action are being contradicted internally, with U.S. intelligence officials confirming no change in Iran’s missile capabilities before the war began nytimes.com. In domestic policy, Republicans in Congress are advancing a restrictive voter ID bill nytimes.com that would severely limit mail-in voting, putting pressure on Democrats to take a public stand against the measure nytimes.com.