Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 9:31 AM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil prices surged to near $100 bloomberg.com as the Iran war escalated, with the International Energy Agency slashing its supply growth forecast wsj.com after a historic emergency stock release proved insufficient to plug the yawning supply gap. The conflict has forced producers to slash production nytimes.com and close ports, creating the largest-ever oil market disruption that has pushed crude correlation with emerging-market currencies to record lows bloomberg.com. Meanwhile, China's energy security push bloomberg.com is paying dividends as its vast crude reserves give refiners breathing space amid Middle East turmoil, a payoff from years of stockpiling and diversifying supply.
Fixed Income
Government bonds looked vulnerable wsj.com as a lengthy period of high oil prices loomed, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing toward 4.9% amid global deficit concerns. Long-term government bonds sank on war spending bloomberg.com as investors grew uneasy about the potential cost of the Iran conflict, while India's rupee hedging costs soared bloomberg.com as the currency slid to record lows following the energy shock. In Europe, companies rushed to sell bonds bloomberg.com as credit risk eased on indications from President Trump that the war would end soon, with €21 billion in deals flooding the market.
Currencies & Forex
The dollar remained elevated bloomberg.com during the Iran conflict, with its role as a crude producer bolstering the greenback while China proved more insulated from the oil surge than expected. The euro fell against the dollar wsj.com as concerns about economic fallout from higher oil prices outweighed bets on potential ECB rate hikes. Turkey's central bank held rates steady bloomberg.com as it paused a cycle of cuts due to war-driven energy price spikes and currency pressures, while India asked China for urea bloomberg.com as the Middle East gas crunch threatened fertilizer production.
Equities & Stock Markets
U.S. stock futures dropped 0.3% bloomberg.com as oil prices continued their surge amid Middle East war, with equity traders bracing for more short-term jitters bloomberg.com before any sense of calm returns to global markets. Charles Schwab's CEO noted a new generation of investors bloomberg.com showing up to buy U.S. equities at every pullback, while emerging-market currencies faced near-term pain bloomberg.com as traders braced for more weakness over the coming month. In Asia, overseas investors sold the most Japanese stocks bloomberg.com since November as part of a broad risk-off move following the Iran war outbreak.
Corporate & M&A
Airbnb prepared a high-grade bond debut bloomberg.com as maturities approached on existing convertible notes, while Oracle allocated an extra $500 million wsj.com to cover restructuring costs as powerful AI models allowed software job cuts. Blue Owl Capital defended its $1.4 billion loan sale bloomberg.com, arguing the transaction contained no backstops or hidden incentives. In Canada, Charlesbank Capital Partners agreed to buy a stake bloomberg.com in Overbay Capital Partners in a deal valuing the secondaries firm at C$200 million.
Real Estate & Infrastructure
Deutsche Bank warned of commercial real estate risks bloomberg.com, saying its U.S. exposure remains a "key risk" that could force higher credit loss provisions as the asset class struggles with refinancings and a stagnant market. Blackstone arranged a $1.2 billion credit facility bloomberg.com for Air Trunk's expansion into Japanese data centers, part of a broader push by private equity into AI infrastructure assets across Asia-Pacific. Meanwhile, Norsk Hydro's Qatar aluminum plant reduced output to 60% capacity wsj.com rather than fully shutting down as originally planned.
Technology & Innovation
Tesla obtained a license to supply electricity wsj.com in Britain, receiving approval to provide power to domestic and nondomestic consumers across England, Scotland and Wales. CATL reported earnings that beat expectations wsj.com despite cooling EV demand and higher metal prices, while Tesla China shipments rebounded in February bloomberg.com bucking industry trends. The world's largest EV battery maker is grappling with flagging sales as it tries to make headway in the highly competitive full-electric market.
Retail & Consumer
Dick's Sporting Goods reported higher comparable sales wsj.com and said it was seeing progress in turning around its recently acquired Foot Locker brand. Dollar General posted higher sales wsj.com but issued a cautious forecast, logging higher profit and sales in its fiscal fourth quarter while suggesting a more measured pace of growth ahead. Zalando shares jumped after a share buyback wsj.com and Levi's partnership announcement, with the German e-commerce company planning to buy back shares of up to $347 million.
Geopolitics & Policy
India is in talks with Iran bloomberg.com to secure safe passage for more than 20 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, while Indian firms withdrew $2.1 billion in bond sales bloomberg.com since the onset of the Iran war as investors demanded wider credit premiums. The European Union's economic heavyweights urged stronger European payments systems bloomberg.com to reduce dependency on foreign systems and accelerate the digital euro's rollout. In the U.S., the Senate Agriculture Committee chair called for new federal aid to farmers bloomberg.com in the wake of gasoline, diesel and fertilizer price spikes driven by military operations against Iran.
Market Structure & Regulation
The National Stock Exchange of India picked bankers for its $2.5 billion IPO bloomberg.com, selecting 20 bankers for the long-awaited initial public offering. Europe's six biggest economies pushed for a single markets watchdog ft.com, with the 'E6' countries aiming to reinvigorate plans to unify the bloc's capital markets. Meanwhile, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority warned it would take action on mis-selling ft.com of 'second charge' mortgages after finding examples of good practice alongside concerning issues.
Alternative Assets & Private Markets
SoftBank's bet on OpenAI started to weigh on the Japanese group ft.com as recent share falls and a negative outlook from S&P created pressure. Nscale's borrowed credibility ft.com highlighted the baby got backing phenomenon in AI infrastructure, while a $33 billion U.S. power plant project raised questions about justification ft.com as it would be the biggest gas plant in the world by some distance. In Europe, funding rounds have never been bigger bloomberg.com thanks to U.S. cash, with Berlin-based software startup n8n receiving 14 offers in a bidding war last summer.
Emerging Markets & Developing Economies
A sharp energy shock from the Iran war extended a slide in Indian equities bloomberg.com and pushed the rupee to record lows as foreign investors stayed defensive. India's inflation accelerated in February bloomberg.com before the Middle East conflict, putting pressure on policymakers as energy supply disruptions pushed up oil and gas prices. In Colombia, primaries upended election bets bloomberg.com and fueled a bond rebound, throwing the May presidential election wide open and reviving hopes for a new market-friendly administration.
Specialty & Niche Markets
Spot container rates to Europe jumped as the Iran war strained capacity bloomberg.com, with the cost to ship goods from China rising over the past week as the conflict disrupted one of the world's busiest shipping routes. India has asked China to allow urea sales bloomberg.com as the Middle East war curtails the nation's gas supplies, threatening fertilizer production in the agricultural powerhouse. In Peru, a prolonged natural gas pipeline leak revealed the costs of political instability bloomberg.com, a phenomenon often shrugged off by investors but suddenly laid bare.