Public Markets 3d Briefing
×ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Oil futures dropped 1.3% bloomberg.com in early Asian trade after OPEC+ signaled potential output increases, while gold held near $2,340 wsj.com as a weakening dollar offset risk-on sentiment. A surge in aluminum prices bloomberg.com pushed China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo past the $48 billion mark, cementing his position among Asia's wealthiest industrialists. Meanwhile, Qatar's LNG export halt extended to the longest streak since 2008 at five days, threatening to further boost prices for the industrial metal, with aluminum edging higher bloomberg.com as traders assessed the war's duration. The conflict also drove oil-poor Asian countries to push 4-day workweeks and car pooling ft.com amid concerns about Middle East supply disruption impacts.
FIXED INCOME
Japanese government bonds extended gains bloomberg.com tracking overnight Treasury rallies as traders increasingly price in a September Fed rate cut. Conversely, U.S. airline bonds weakened nytimes.com after jet fuel costs spiked 8% on Middle East supply fears, and Chicago's planned muni bond sale bloomberg.com is testing investor appetite amid geopolitical uncertainty. The war also spurred China's energy security push to pay off bloomberg.com as its vast reserves provided refiners breathing space.
DEALS & FINANCE
A surge in aluminum prices bloomberg.com propelled China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo to a $48 billion fortune, while Ares Management secured $400 million bloomberg.com in delayed draw term loans for Blackstone's Enverus after previous $3 billion support. Meanwhile, Aaru, founded by teenagers wsj.com, attracted brands like McDonald's and EY by betting AI bots can predict human behavior better than humans, and Nintendo shares soared 10% bloomberg.com on the surprise success of its new Pokémon game. In private credit, Bondi moved to military housing nytimes.com due to threats, and TD paid its ex-CEO $2.2 million bloomberg.com to advise on anti-money laundering efforts.
MARKETS & ECONOMY
The war lifted the K-defence company offering a cheap Patriot rival ft.com, while Trump's Iran war comments caused oil to swing ft.com. Oil prices fell on a report of a record IEA reserve release bloomberg.com, but oil futures were mixed wsj.com after swinging between gains and losses. The conflict also drove oil prices to surge near $120 bloomberg.com and gold's appeal fading may drive investors toward bargain Indian stocks bloomberg.com, with the MSCI India gauge at its cheapest valuation since late 2023. The dollar weakened as oil prices rose bloomberg.com, and China emerged as an unlikely haven bloomberg.com, while Taiwan and Korea investors held leveraged bets bloomberg.com despite a selloff.
POLITICS & REGULATION
The war prompted Trump's administration to restart the Global Entry program nytimes.com and saw Republicans grow nervous over Iran war and gas prices ft.com, with some lawmakers raising concerns about possible ground troops. Conversely, Democrats sued to find out if Trump will send armed officers nytimes.com to election sites, and Trump said the US will get its first new oil refinery in 50 years bloomberg.com backed by Reliance Industries. The conflict also influenced Japan's 5-year bond sale drawing firmer demand bloomberg.com amid receding rate hike expectations.
TECH & SCIENCE
ChatGPT and other chatbots gained approval nytimes.com for official Senate use, while Meta acquired Moltbook, the social network for AI bots nytimes.com. The Wall Street and crypto battle over money's future ft.com continued, with Bitcoin rebounding to $71,000 bloomberg.com after a choppy week. The US destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers ft.com near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran showed it knows how to adapt nytimes.com by letting some ships pass while scaring others off.
REGIONAL FOCUS
In the Middle East, Iran can't let Trump have his TACO and walk away bloomberg.com, and Iran's control of Hormuz means it's exporting more oil wsj.com today than before the war. The US showered Iran with bombs nytimes.com in its most intense strikes, while Israel is sticking with its goal of regime change wsj.com. Meanwhile, Qatar's LNG halt extended bloomberg.com, and Vietnam tapped a fuel fund to steady prices bloomberg.com amid Middle East conflict risks.
OTHER
China's energy security push paid off bloomberg.com, and China stockpiled more oil before the Iran war nytimes.com. The ECB won't allow a repeat of last inflation shock bloomberg.com, and U.S. stocks erased gains as confusion over oil tanker holds bloomberg.com. Finally, Bondi's attorney general relocated nytimes.com due to threats, and Ares's private credit fund faces $33 billion redemptions bloomberg.com.