Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Energy & Commodities
Oil prices slid below $98 bloomberg.com a barrel as President Donald Trump’s repeated assertions that the Iran war is nearing its end dampened supply shock fears, reversing last week’s surge above $100 that exposed an inflation risk bloomberg.com for equities. The drop provided relief to global markets after the conflict had shaved about 6% off global output bloomberg.com through Hormuz disruptions and Saudi production cuts. In Europe, natural gas dropped bloomberg.com on the same rhetoric, while UK petrol prices jumped 3.5% bloomberg.com—the biggest weekly rise since 2022—reflecting lagging transmission of crude declines to consumers. Meanwhile, the G-7 energy ministers will meet in Paris bloomberg.com to debate a coordinated oil reserve release, a move the EU’s Dombrovskis said is an option bloomberg.com after crude smashed through $110. The supply crunch is spreading to crop-based fuels bloomberg.com as methanol prices surge in Southeast Asia, and India has invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG to households bloomberg.com from industrial users. Separately, Japan locked in a rare earths supply ft.com with Australia’s Lynas, a deal with a price guarantee highlighting the push to diversify away from China.
Fixed Income
Treasury yields were little changed wsj.com as the administration’s war-ending comments countered initial flight-to-safety bids, while Japanese government bonds extended gains wsj.com tracking the U.S. move. The corporate bond rush in Europe accelerated, with companies launching a €21 billion deal sprint bloomberg.com as credit risk gauges eased on the same geopolitical optimism. In the U.S., Honeywell Aerospace kicked off a $16 billion bond sale bloomberg.com, its inaugural investment-grade issuance, to fund a planned spinoff. Conversely, U.S. airline bonds weakened bloomberg.com as jet fuel costs soared, stirring downgrade fears. Bank of America warned investors may misread the Fed’s response bloomberg.com to the oil surge, noting supply shocks can sometimes lead to periods of stable or even lower rates. Mexican inflation jumped above target bloomberg.com in February, complicating the central bank’s easing path amid broader commodity price pressures.
Equities
U.S. stock futures stalled ahead of the bell bloomberg.com as traders’ conviction in a swift war end waned bloomberg.com after earlier relief, with the S&P 500 eventually ending Monday slightly higher nytimes.com on Trump’s comments. The rebound proved fragile, with premarket moves showing a 0.1% decline bloomberg.com the next day. BioNTech shares slumped 14% premarket wsj.com after co-founders announced exits and revenue guidance missed forecasts, a move coinciding with their departure plans ft.com to launch a new mRNA venture. Lindt shares sank 7.8% wsj.com after cutting guidance, citing war-driven tourism hits. Kohl’s sales missed expectations wsj.com despite turnaround efforts, while NIO turned its first profit wsj.com on record sales and strong margins. Across the Atlantic, European banks topped estimates bloomberg.com in a mixed earnings season, buoyed by trading income. Goldman Sachs has been pitching a new big short ft.com on software loans to hedge funds, and fast-money investors are ramping up short bets bloomberg.com on U.S. stocks.
Geopolitical & Supply Chains
The war’s energy shock is forcing a global policy scramble. Saudi Arabia is racing to restore 70% of shipments ft.com and has started production cuts bloomberg.com as Hormuz blockage fills storage, while its East-West pipeline is nearing capacity wsj.com at 7 million barrels daily. The UAE battled a drone-caused fire bloomberg.com near its largest refinery. China, having raised crude imports 16% nytimes.com in early 2026 to build stockpiles, summoned Maersk and MSC ft.com over high freight rates. Japan’s auto-parts makers are turning to Russia’s Rusal bloomberg.com for aluminum after trade disruptions. India’s top bank, State Bank of India, is shunning Russian oil payments bloomberg.com despite a U.S. waiver, and Taiwan has capped weekly oil-price rises bloomberg.com. The conflict is forcing Asian fuel rationing bloomberg.com, including four-day workweeks and school closures, while Saudi Aramco warned of ‘catastrophic consequences’ ft.com if the war drags. Amid this, Exxon Mobil is accelerating its move to Texas wsj.com, joining a corporate migration seeking a "more business-friendly environment," and plans to ask shareholders to vote wsj.com on redomiciling from New Jersey.
Private Markets & Corporates
Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan earned 6.7% last year as rising stocks, gold, and SpaceX gains bloomberg.com offset an "unusually large loss" in private equity, highlighting the growing weight of public market holdings in large portfolios. Carlyle Group is designing a complex credit vehicle bloomberg.com to kick-start its flagship fund as private equity exit timelines stretch. CVC Capital has signed a €3.5 billion debt deal ft.com with KKR and Pimco after a faltering equity raise. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square filed for a U.S. IPO ft.com for a new closed-end fund. In Asia, Samsung and SK are canceling $14 billion in treasury shares bloomberg.com—one of Korea’s largest such moves—while Hong Kong family offices plan more crypto and private equity exposure bloomberg.com. Polymarket is enlisting Palantir bloomberg.com to police sports betting contracts amid regulatory scrutiny.
Asia & EM Focus
Emerging-market assets rebounded bloomberg.com on war-ending hopes, though Argentina’s bond rally has stalled bloomberg.com as President Milei’s New York investor meetings face the country’s "junk" label and war fallout. India’s hedging costs hit a July 2024 high bloomberg.com for stocks, and the lira’s options protection reached an 8-month peak bloomberg.com, showing persistent angst despite Trump’s rhetoric. Taiwan and Korean retail investors held fast to leveraged bets bloomberg.com during the selloff. Taiwan is also considering a debut sovereign bond bloomberg.com to fund foreign outreach, and Singapore Exchange will launch bond futures bloomberg.com for India and Southeast Asia. China’s Gen Z day traders are moving markets bloomberg.com via chatbots, while Lego’s chief criticized a Danish wealth tax ft.com proposal, saying it would "drain quite a lot of capital."
Regulatory & Corporate Governance
The SEC is probing two accountants over Vistry’s financial forecasts ft.com following profit warnings. Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales face pushback from local competitors wsj.com on their space merger, pointing to regulatory hurdles. Carmignac is supporting activist Palliser Capital bloomberg.com in its campaign at South Korea’s LG Chem. In media, USA Today named Jamie Stockwell nytimes.com as its next top editor, the third hire in three years after recent turmoil. The D.N.C. sued to disclose plans for federal election monitors nytimes.com, and the F.A.A. briefly halted JetBlue departures nytimes.com after a system outage.