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Public Markets 3d Briefing

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Energy & Commodities

Oil futures slid 1.3% bloomberg.com in early Asian trade after President Trump hinted at a speedy end to the Iran war, while gold held near $2,340 nytimes.com despite a weakening dollar. A surge in aluminum prices bloomberg.com catapulted China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo to a $48 billion fortune, making him one of Asia's wealthiest industrialists. Meanwhile, palm oil futures fell 4.3% bloomberg.com in Kuala Lumpur tracking crude's slump, as Chicago soybean oil jumped 4% bloomberg.com on biofuel demand from Middle East energy price spikes.

Fixed Income & Currency

Japanese government bonds extended their rally bloomberg.com tracking overnight gains in U.S. Treasurys as traders priced in a September Fed rate cut. The onshore yuan strengthened bloomberg.com after the PBOC set its most bullish fixing since January, while Turkish lira hedging costs hit 8-month highs bloomberg.com as traders maintained bearish bets despite Trump's Iran comments. South African bonds plunged bloomberg.com extending their worst selloff since Covid as oil price surges fueled inflation fears.

Equities & IPO Markets

Lego reported 16% revenue growth wsj.com in 2025, outpacing the 7% global toy market expansion. Quest Global Services bloomberg.com began discussions with banks for a potential $1 billion Mumbai IPO, while Aier Eye Hospital Group bloomberg.com is considering a Hong Kong listing. Gabler Group AG shares rose 13.6% bloomberg.com on their German trading debut, buoyed by strong demand for European defense firms.

Geopolitical & Defense

Swiss arms exports nearly hit record highs wsj.com last year as European defense spending boomed. The U.S. is leaving Kharg Island untouched ft.com in its Iran strikes, potentially signaling longer-term strategy. Venezuela crude shipments booked for China bloomberg.com as U.S. sanctions eased, while India's top bank shuns Russian oil payments bloomberg.com despite U.S. waivers citing uncertainty over duration.

Corporate & Industry

Berkeley Group faces tax and regulatory obstacles ft.com in London homebuilding amid the Iran war's impact on real estate recovery. Renault targets India and emerging markets ft.com to reduce European reliance as Chinese competition intensifies. Volkswagen expands into energy storage bloomberg.com as EV battery demand falls short of expectations, while Persimmon guided for growth after higher revenue and pretax profit.

Regional Markets

Japan's Nikkei entered correction territory bloomberg.com as oil spikes and Iran fears weighed on the economic outlook. Taiwan and South Korean investors held leveraged positions bloomberg.com during the selloff, signaling resilient appetite for tech-heavy markets. India's margin funding dropped to November lows bloomberg.com as conflict and oil prices roiled markets, while Mexican inflation exceeded forecasts bloomberg.com to top the target range.

Market Sentiment & Strategy

GAM's Paul Markham questioned the relief rally's sustainability bloomberg.com, saying it's "quite difficult to believe" the current bounce will last. JPMorgan turned bullish on blue-chip bonds bloomberg.com, expecting spreads to tighten by 12 basis points. Options trading frenzy highlighted Iran war market stress bloomberg.com, with traders piling into contracts as commodity prices soared.

Policy & Regulation

The G-7 energy ministers met in Paris bloomberg.com to debate oil reserve releases, while Europe considered tapping strategic reserves ft.com to stabilize markets. UK competition authority allowed 2.2% water bill increases ft.com on top of previous 24% hikes. Singapore Exchange will launch Asian bond futures bloomberg.com as investors seek hedging tools amid regional volatility.

Technology & Innovation

China's Gen Z day traders are moving markets bloomberg.com through chatbot-driven strategies, while Tencent and Zhipu shares jumped bloomberg.com on AI agent launches. Chinese sovereign bonds slumped bloomberg.com Monday as oil surge fanned inflation worries, and the yield curve hit four-year steep levels bloomberg.com on energy price concerns.

Automotive & Transportation

High gas prices created headaches wsj.com for automakers and consumers with no easy answers. SpiceJet chairman warned $90 crude is unsustainable bloomberg.com, potentially forcing airlines to rethink expansion. AirAsia X became worst-performing airline stock bloomberg.com after management's decision not to hedge jet fuel backfired amid the Iran conflict.

Financial Services

Blackstone arranged a $1.2 billion credit facility bloomberg.com for Air Trunk's Japanese data center expansion. Banks face higher significant risk transfer costs bloomberg.com as investors demand more amid economic uncertainty. Goldman Sachs pitched a "new big short" ft.com strategy to hedge funds targeting software loans.

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market currencies and stocks rebounded Tuesday bloomberg.com after Trump's Iran war comments. China raised crude imports bloomberg.com to guard against supply disruptions, while exports soared 22% bloomberg.com before Middle East conflict broke out. Chinese sovereign bonds slumped bloomberg.com as oil surge fanned inflation worries.

Alternative Assets

Strategy accelerated Bitcoin buying bloomberg.com with a $1.3 billion purchase, leaning on common stock despite earlier pledges to pivot. Clean cooking pioneer Koko Networks collapsed ft.com, reverberating through carbon credit markets. Lego chief criticized Danish wealth tax proposal ft.com as draining capital from companies.

Market Infrastructure

The Singapore Bourse will offer Asian bond futures bloomberg.com as investors seek hedging tools. UK's Pisces system will see first private company trade ft.com with board games maker QPlay using JP Jenkins platform. ICE detention of teen musicians roiled Texas mariachi community nytimes.com amid broader immigration enforcement impacts.

Economic Outlook

Stagflationary forces are building ft.com as Iran war and oil prices spark inflation concerns amid weakening labor markets. U.S. solar installations fell 14% nytimes.com in 2025 as Trump attacked clean energy policies. Oil spike clouded Indian bank earnings outlook bloomberg.com, with profits potentially falling 4-8% through March 2027.