Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil and Tech Selloff
Tech stocks wsj.com plunged after a research report warned AI could disrupt enterprise software, triggering the worst selloff since 2022. The Nasdaq fell sharply wsj.com as AMD's AI chip partnership with Meta failed to offset broader market anxiety. Investors dumped software stocks finance.yahoo.com despite earnings, with payment and enterprise software companies bearing the brunt of AI disruption fears. The selloff extended to payment processors and enterprise software providers, as Citrini's AI prediction bloomberg.com sparked market panic and exposed vulnerabilities in crowded tech trades.
Federal Reserve and Economic Policy
Federal Reserve officials bloomberg.com signaled rates would remain unchanged "for some time" as labor market improvements tempered rate cut expectations. Traders bloomberg.com are betting on Fed rate cuts spilling into 2027, piling into futures and options markets. Fed's Goolsbee bloomberg.com described the job market as "pretty steady" while expressing increased inflation concerns. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon wsj.com dismissed fears about AI's impact on JPMorgan, maintaining confidence in the bank's positioning despite broader market turbulence.
Corporate Earnings and Guidance
Workday wsj.com guided for 12-13% subscription revenue growth, missing investor expectations amid AI disruption concerns. HP wsj.com dialed down fiscal-year expectations as memory chip costs rose. First Solar wsj.com posted higher fourth-quarter profit but missed analyst revenue expectations for 2026. Boston Beer wsj.com reported lower fourth-quarter revenue, warning that shifting tariff policies could significantly impact its annual guidance. Cava wsj.com saw 21% revenue growth driven by higher prices and new restaurant openings, while Lucid Group wsj.com posted higher revenue as EV production and deliveries ramped up.
Private Markets and Credit
Private credit bloomberg.com faces mounting pressure as Blue Owl Capital's turmoil exposes deeper cracks in the $1.8 trillion industry. Dan Loeb bloomberg.com said the "lost art of short selling" is making a comeback as opportunities emerge to bet against crowded trades. Boaz Weinstein warned that "wheels are coming off" private credit funds, highlighting systemic risks. The leveraged loan market provides insights into the software selloff, with buyout shops and private credit lenders heavily exposed to tech sector volatility.
International Markets and Policy
Japan's stock outlook bloomberg.com improved as a new corporate governance code revision may free up $840 billion in cash held by listed companies. European AI chip startup Axelera finance.yahoo.com raised an additional $250 million, highlighting continued investment in AI infrastructure despite market volatility. South Korea investing.com remains bullish on its equity market in 2026, with analysts citing strong fundamentals. China's BYD wsj.com logged nearly threefold European sales growth in January, outpacing Tesla while Volkswagen, BMW, and Renault reported declines.
Regulatory and Legal Developments
The US Supreme Court bloomberg.com ruled Trump's tariffs under IEEPA illegal but remained silent on refund issues, likely sending the decision back to the Court of International Trade. Senator bloomberg.com opened a Binance probe into alleged Iran and Russia violations following reports of $2 billion funneled to designated Iranian groups. US banks bloomberg.com showed broad gains in key metrics during Q4 despite modest profit declines, with the deposit insurance fund balance continuing to rise. The SEC wsj.com faces scrutiny over potential shareholder silencing, with markets working best when guided by business owners.
Energy and Commodities
Oil bloomberg.com held near seven-month highs as investors awaited US-Iran talks, with prices climbing on concerns about potential US strikes on Iran. Goldman Sachs investing.com lifted its Q4 oil price forecast on tighter OECD inventories. Sasol bloomberg.com boosted output and added hedges as oil slump weighed on profit, with the fuel and chemical producer navigating volatile crude prices. Morgan Stanley investing.com adopted a cautious stance on US LNG as a supply wave threatens prices, highlighting market uncertainty.
Technology and Innovation
Core Weave bloomberg.com seeks an $8.5 billion loan from banks including Morgan Stanley and MUFG to finance cloud computing capacity for Meta Platforms. Google finance.yahoo.com signed AES and Xcel supply deals to meet data-center energy needs, highlighting the tech sector's growing power demands. ASML finance.yahoo.com unveiled an EUV light source advance that could yield 50% more chips by 2030, maintaining momentum in semiconductor manufacturing technology. The fundraising tactic wsj.com AI startups are using to juice valuations has led to unequal deals for investors, raising questions about company valuations.
Consumer and Retail
Private school tuition bloomberg.com in the US approaches $50,000, according to S&P Global Ratings. Home Depot investing.com fourth-quarter comparable sales growth topped estimates, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending. Booking investing.com was lifted to Buy as analysts maintain it will remain a "key driver of travel." Freshpet investing.com received an upgrade from Morgan Stanley on upside from same-day grocery delivery. Genuine Parts investing.com saw an upgrade from Raymond James on breakup value potential.
Financial Services and Banking
Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com is set to move into Credit Suisse's Milan office, underscoring its growing Italian footprint. Telecom Italia bloomberg.com proposed a €400 million stock buyback and 1-for-10 reverse split to overhaul its equity profile. Turkish bank stocks bloomberg.com have more room to run, according to Goldman Sachs analysts who expect weaker inflation and falling rates to boost the sector in 2027. Temenos investing.com guided for 9% earnings growth in 2026, maintaining steady performance in banking software.
Real Estate and Infrastructure
A new pipeline proposal bloomberg.com in Montana may revive a version of the canceled Keystone XL project through South Bow Corp.'s expansion plans. Rapid UK coastal erosion ft.com throws a spotlight on the £40bn nuclear plant, with over 27 meters of cliff lost in an area just 2km from Sizewell C. Hyundai bloomberg.com pitched hydrogen transport tied to Canada's submarine bid, proposing to build hydrogen fuel-cell infrastructure as part of South Korea's defense contract pursuit.
Luxury and Consumer Brands
Bernard Arnault bloomberg.com tightened his grip on LVMH as his stake crossed the 50% mark, further consolidating control of Europe's largest luxury group. Breitling ft.com saw its valuation slashed by private equity owners as luxury brand performance faltered since CVC's 2023 sale to Partners Group. Pernod Ricard investing.com dropped 3% after Deutsche Bank cut to "sell" on rally, reflecting shifting sentiment in the luxury beverage sector.