Public Markets 24 Hours

Last updated: July 1, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Global Equities & Market Sentiment

Global stocks closed out the second quarter with their strongest performance in six years, with the S&P 500 Index rising nearly 15% and the Nasdaq Composite up 21%. This rally, however, faces headwinds as July begins with futures pointing lower, weighed down by expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes as traders assess Warsh comments. Despite the rocky start to the new month, some analysts remain optimistic, with Goldman Sachs predicting broader stock gains in the second half, driven by earnings growth in technology companies. The recent surge in AI investment is fueling a significant debt binge within the private markets, with a more than century-old private bond market opening a new front in the AI funding boom. Separately, Canadian stocks are outperforming their U.S. counterparts for a second consecutive year, buoyed by a surge in bank performance.

Technology & AI

The artificial intelligence boom continues to reshape industries, with Alphabet Inc. seeing its $2 trillion gain from the past year now tempered by a shift in the AI trade that has it lagging the Nasdaq. Fears that AI poses a mortal threat to the software sector are being reassessed, with Guggenheim upgrading several companies and suggesting these concerns are overdone. In a significant development for AI development, Anthropic has won a reprieve from the Trump administration, allowing it to restore access to its most powerful AI models. The company is also launching Claude Science to target pharmaceutical revenue through applications in drug discovery and protein structure rendering. Meanwhile, Together AI, a specialist in open-source models, has reached a valuation exceeding $8 billion, pitching itself as a solution for companies seeking more affordable AI options.

Central Banks & Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has signaled that inflation poses less of a risk than in preceding weeks, though he stressed the central bank's commitment to price stability as he seeks to limit communication. In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that risks to euro-area inflation and growth are now more broadly balanced, a sentiment echoed by Governing Council member Ulo Kaasik, who suggested one more rate hike. However, Martin Kocher, another Governing Council member, indicated that future decisions will likely be a choice between a further hike or a hold as he keeps options open. Bond markets are reacting to the uncertain monetary policy outlook, with bonds falling ahead of a key central banker's event.

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures posted their sharpest quarterly drop since 2020, settling lower amid relief over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing U.S.-Iran discussions. Prices were little changed as the market monitored these talks and the return of shipping traffic through the critical waterway. Despite the broader retreat, coffee and sugar futures extended their rally due to unfavorable weather conditions in key growing regions exacerbating supply concerns. European natural gas prices have risen amid supply uncertainty stemming from the Middle East and widespread heatwaves across the continent driving demand. In the metals market, aluminum prices surged, prompting Alcoa to strike a $4.8 billion deal for South32's alumina and bauxite assets.

M&A and Corporate Activity

Global mergers and acquisitions activity topped $2.5 trillion in the first half of the year, setting a strong pace for the remainder of 2026. In the logistics sector, French shipping giant CMA CGM is set to acquire FedEx's supply chain business for $1.4 billion, with plans to collaborate on ocean transport and air cargo. In another significant deal, Kroger agreed to acquire Giant Eagle for $1.65 billion. Getty has scrapped its $3.7 billion merger with Shutterstock following an order from the UK's Competition and Markets Authority. Meanwhile, Perpetual has rejected a $1.7 billion takeover bid from private equity firm EQT AB.

Inflation and Economic Activity

Inflation in Peru's capital unexpectedly accelerated in June, remaining above the central bank's target for a fourth consecutive month, driven by rising food costs. Pakistan's inflation eased last month but remained in double digits, keeping policymakers vigilant. In the U.S., factory activity continued expand June, albeit at a slower pace, with the ISM purchasing managers' index at 53.3, down 0.7 percentage point from May. This expansion was supported by an easing of war-driven input cost surges as manufacturing activity grew for a sixth month. UK house price inflation rose to 2.2% in June, from 1.7% in May, as falling energy costs softened interest rate expectations.