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Oil Prices Drop Ahead of U.S.-Iran Doha Talks; Strait of Hormuz Concerns Persist

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Crude oil futures slipped in early Asian trading Tuesday as investors positioned ahead of expected U.S.-Iran negotiations. President Trump announced via social media that Iran requested a meeting in Doha, setting up diplomatic discussions for Wednesday. Market participants reacted cautiously to the news, weighing potential supply impacts against ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The $70.19 per barrel WTI price reflects a 0.8% decline from Monday's close. While diplomatic progress could ease sanctions-related supply concerns, traders remain wary about Strait of Hormuz disruptions. ANZ Research analysts note reports suggesting Iran plans to control maritime traffic through the critical waterway, even bypassing Oman as an intermediary.

These shipping concerns threaten to delay Persian Gulf oil output recovery, limiting the downside for prices despite the pre-meeting adjustment selling. The strait handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade, making any control attempts particularly significant for energy markets. Geopolitical risk premiums typically support crude valuations during periods of supply uncertainty.

The market faces a delicate balance between diplomatic optimism and physical supply risks. Any agreement reached in Doha could meaningfully impact oil flows from the region, while continued tensions would keep supply concerns elevated. Traders will watch the meeting outcome closely for directional cues.