TD Securities and Credit Agricole CIB see the yuan breaking its usual Q2 slide as Iran‑related tension eases. They cite China’s capacity to absorb the war’s shock and a budding domestic rebound. Trading sits near 6.9 per dollar, while analysts monitor People’s Bank policy for any tilt that could nudge the pair higher. A modest uptick in manufacturing output this month supports the optimistic view.

Both firms project the yuan appreciating to 6.8 per dollar by quarter‑end, implying a 1% gain from today’s rate. That would reverse the average 1.6% decline the currency has suffered each second quarter over ten years. The upside hinges on export resilience, steadier capital flows, and a central bank that avoids aggressive rate cuts.

Investors tracking the yuan now weigh these upside bets against lingering risks such as tighter credit conditions and possible escalation in the Middle East. Should the currency reach the projected 6.8 level, it would deliver a rare quarterly rally, offering foreign‑exchange traders a timely profit window. A sustained move above 6.8 could also ease pressure on Chinese exporters facing a stronger dollar abroad.