Wheat futures are set for the longest weekly decline in nearly 30 years, marking a sharp reversal after leading agricultural commodity gains earlier this year. Prices surged in September to their highest level since 2023, driven by export disruptions from the Black Sea following escalating strikes on ships and infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia. These two nations are major global exporters, and the resulting shortfall pushed up prices worldwide, fueling food inflation concerns.
While Black Sea tensions persist, the risk premium has begun to fade as the Trump administration seeks peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv. Additionally, increased Russian wheat exports via Baltic ports are alleviating some supply pressures. Despite recent improvements in rhetoric and progress toward resuming trilateral talks, significant on-the-ground improvements remain absent, noted Stone X Senior Commodities Economist Mike Castle.
US net sales for the week ended Oct. 15 fell below expectations, contributing to a selloff. The most-active Chicago wheat contract has declined over 5% this week, extending an eighth straight weekly loss—the longest streak since 1997—though it pared Friday gains. Corn futures also slipped for a fourth week.
Harvests accelerating in Australia and Argentina, both major Southern Hemisphere exporters, are boosting near-term supply. Global production is projected to be the second-largest on record, easing broader concerns, though the Black Sea slowdown could impact longer-term output as both nations plant next year's crops with expected reductions in winter-wheat planting.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing