A Datafolha poll released Thursday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 50% of valid votes each as Brazil's presidential race enters its final days. The survey of 2,520 voters from Oct. 20-22 has a 2 percentage point margin of error. In total votes, Flávio leads 47% to 46%.
The result marks a shift from last week's poll showing Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49%, reinforcing the tight contest after Flávio finished ahead in the first round. Lula's campaign sees signs of gains from ground and social media reorganization, planning to intensify criticism of Bolsonaro. Flávio's team acknowledges the race has tightened but plays down the result.
Friday's TV Globo debate at 9:20 p.m. is a critical opportunity for Flávio to reinforce his "change" message, with advisors urging a less aggressive tone after Sunday's Band TV clashes. A final polling wave Saturday from Atlas Intel, CNT/MDA, Quaest, Datafolha and BTG Pactual/Nexus precedes Sunday's vote. Both candidates hold closing rallies Saturday — Flávio in Rio, Lula on Copacabana beach and Avenida Paulista — in their respective voting cities.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing