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Iran War Inflation Threat Saps Global Bond Appeal

Bloomberg Markets •
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Japanese 10-year yields climbed six basis points ahead of a government auction as traders fear prolonged Middle East conflict will boost inflation and oil prices. Australia's 10-year yields jumped 12 basis points to 4.75% amid central bank warnings of potential rate hikes. US 10-year yields rose 10 basis points Monday, extending a rout that saw a Bloomberg global bond gauge drop 0.8% – the biggest one-day loss since May. Gareth Berry of Macquarie Bank notes this contradicts the usual haven appeal of bonds during conflict, explaining higher yields now reflect priced-in monetary easing expectations. Mohamed El-Erian warns of a "stagflationary wind" from geopolitical risks, while Monica Defend of Amundi calls this a structural shift where geopolitics becomes a recurring macro driver. China's bond market remains resilient due to liquidity injections and easing expectations, contrasting with other major markets facing renewed inflation fears.