Global markets reeled Monday as US strikes on Iran sent oil prices soaring and raised fears of prolonged conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, has been all but closed to shipping, triggering a rush to safe havens like gold while airlines and other fuel-sensitive sectors tumbled.

Defense stocks rallied as investors positioned for potential escalation, but US Treasuries behaved unexpectedly. Rather than rising as typical safe havens, yields on 10-year notes climbed 3 basis points to 3.97%. Analysts attribute this to inflation concerns from higher oil prices, which could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. Historical data shows Treasuries typically weaken after oil supply shocks.

With markets fixated on the conflict, the February jobs report offers a brief respite. Economists project 60,000 jobs were added, less than half January's gains, potentially influencing Fed policy. As the fog of war settles, investors are weighing probabilities over shifting facts, with gold's surge suggesting alternative assets currently offer better haven status than traditional government bonds.