UBS economist Abigail Watt sees a potential economic lift from an unlikely source: your mailbox. She argues that a larger-than-usual tax refund season could fuel a spike in consumer spending, giving growth a jolt this year. Her optimism hinges on fiscal policy, suggesting government actions are creating upside risks to inflation data.

This isn't just about a one-time windfall for households. Watt connects it to a bigger picture of growth optimism. When people get bigger checks from the IRS, they tend to spend, which drives corporate revenue and keeps the economic engine humming.

This consumption boost could be the buffer against a feared slowdown. Speaking on 'Bloomberg Brief' with Vonnie Quinn, Watt positioned this fiscal injection as a key variable for the year ahead. It suggests that despite concerns about interest rates and consumer fatigue, real cash flowing into bank accounts could be the decisive factor.

All eyes now turn to the refund data and subsequent retail sales reports to see if her forecast holds true.