Tax refund season is exceeding forecasts as recipients collect checks larger than anticipated under the Trump income-tax cuts. That extra cash in hand tends to outweigh the sting of realizing one handed the government an interest-free loan for months.

Don Schneider at Piper Sandler flagged the refund surge in a note to clients, connecting it to broader market sentiment. The Supreme Court's elimination of some Trump tariffs is adding to the upside, delivering relief to shareholders and lowering costs for businesses dependent on imported inputs.

Combined, these twin tailwinds — fiscal cuts and trade relief — are feeding into equity market strength. Schneider ties the refund windfall to consumer spending power while tariff rollbacks benefit companies with international supply chains, creating a rare convergence of policy wins for risk assets.