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BofA urges profit‑taking as red‑flag signals surge

Bloomberg Markets •
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Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian told clients to take profits as bear‑market signposts multiply. About 70% of red‑flag metrics have fired, matching levels seen at previous peaks. The S&P 500 appears statistically expensive on 17 of 20 measures and rich versus tech‑bubble metrics on eight. Consumer confidence, M&A scores and credit‑stress gauges also turned negative, deepening the warning.

Indicators include weakening consumer confidence, softening May SLOOS demand and a widening gap between high‑ and low‑PE stocks. Tech sector divergence hit its widest quintile spread since Feb 2000, while top‑10% S&P stocks outpaced the bottom‑10% at a post‑Covid high. Investment‑grade issuance and equity supply have risen, buybacks slowed, and hyperscaler capex is set to rise from 40% to near 100% of operating cash flow by year‑end.

Subramanian still sees pockets of upside in individual S&P constituents but not the index as a whole. She projects a year‑end target of 7,100, below the ~7,450 level on Monday. Investors should trim exposure, scale back leverage and focus on sectors with clearer earnings visibility as the market shows signs of instability.