Market consensus points to a hold on the benchmark rate at 2.25% when Governor Tiff Macklem meets the policy council on Wednesday. The decision follows a Bloomberg poll showing analysts anticipating the fourth straight meeting without a change. Officials will release a monetary policy report to clarify how recent oil-price volatility and Middle‑East tensions could shape inflation and growth.

Annual inflation ticked up to 2.4% in March, driven largely by a surge in gasoline prices, yet core CPI—excluding food and energy—remained at a modest 1.9%, the slowest pace since late 2024. Analysts at National Bank Financial argue that the soft core reading supports a “look‑through” approach to the headline spike, reducing pressure for immediate rate hikes.

Canada’s GDP is estimated to have grown about 1.5% in Q1, despite choppy performance linked to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, and a slowdown in population growth. Higher oil revenues could offset some headwinds, but firms have yet to translate price gains into capital spending. With the finance ministry’s fiscal update due Tuesday, the BOC is likely to keep its stance unchanged for now.