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BoJ Holds Rates Amid Middle East Oil Shock

Financial Times Markets •
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Japan's central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 0.75%, matching market forecasts but reflecting a 6‑to‑3 split in the Monetary Policy Committee. The decision comes as Middle East tensions drive oil prices higher, tightening the economic outlook for Tokyo and its corporate sector and leaving investors wary of potential inflationary shocks in the term.

BoJ’s outlook warned that Japan’s GDP growth could slow this fiscal year as higher crude costs squeeze corporate earnings and household disposable income. The central bank’s statement also noted that the yen hovered near ¥159.50 against the dollar, prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to hint at possible intervention to curb sharp swings in the volatile.

Tokyo markets stayed buoyant, with the Nikkei 225 peaking at 60,537 points on Monday before holding near that level. The benchmark rate pause aligns with expectations for the U.S. Fed, ECB and Bank of England, all likely to defer hikes until clearer data emerges on war‑related inflation risks for the global economy's recovery in near.

With oil prices poised to remain volatile, the BoJ's decision signals a cautious stance that could temper investor sentiment toward Japanese equities and bonds. The central bank's vote underscores the fragility of Japan's growth trajectory amid external shocks, prompting firms to reassess exposure and investors to adjust risk premiums accordingly for the next fiscal cycle.