Abu Dhabi confirmed on Tuesday it will quit Opec after nearly six decades, dealing a sharp blow to the cartel and its de‑facto leader Saudi Arabia. Frustration over production quotas and growing tension with Riyadh drove the decision, coming as the world wrestles with an energy crisis sparked by the US‑Israel war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE has complained for years that Opec’s quota system throttles its ability to raise exports, even as it expands capacity. Brent slipped briefly after the news but rebounded to $111.10 a barrel, up 2.7% on the day. Rystad Energy’s Jorge León warned the cartel will be structurally weaker without Abu Dhabi, leaving Saudi Arabia as the only member with spare capacity.

Without the UAE, Opec+ will still control roughly 40% of global oil supply, but its ability to smooth out supply imbalances is now in question. Rising output from non‑Opec producers, especially the United States, has already eroded the group’s influence. Abu Dhabi’s exit underscores its ambition to become a larger producer and could add volatility to an already strained market.