Rice prices surged, marking the steepest rise since August 2023, as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushed fuel and fertilizer costs higher. The benchmark Thai white rice 5% broken jumped 10% to $423 a ton for the week ending April 8. Traders see the move as the first clear sign that soaring input costs are spilling into the grain market, ending a decade‑long slide toward historic lows.

In Thailand, some growers have pulled their seedlings from the field, saying profit margins can no longer absorb the cost surge. Senior commodities analyst Oscar Tjakra of Rabobank cited a stronger baht, higher freight and insurance premiums linked to the Middle East war, and a prolonged dry spell that trimmed yields. Thailand, the world’s third‑largest rice exporter, now faces tighter supplies as off‑season harvests wrap up.

With input costs unlikely to recede soon, rice exporters may tighten contracts, pushing retail prices higher across the region. Import‑dependent markets such as the Philippines and Bangladesh could see spikes in consumer inflation, while buyers may turn to alternative grains. The current surge underscores how geopolitical shocks in energy can quickly reverberate through staple food markets.