Asian LNG buyers are betting that Qatar Energy will let its force majeure for the region lapse in mid‑July, sources said. The supplier has not signaled a renewal, and its usual month‑ahead notice suggests a shutdown of the clause. A similar declaration covering Europe is slated to expire in mid‑August, with expectations it will also end for the upcoming summer contract window.

The move reflects easing tensions after the Iran‑U.S. interim peace deal cleared the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to resume flow. The strait had choked roughly 20% of global LNG supply when closed, prompting Qatar to halt output at Ras Laffan following Iranian attacks in March. Restarting shipments would boost Asian imports as empty tankers line up and stabilize spot pricing across the region.

Analysts see the lapse as a signal that Qatar expects to meet its contractual obligations and scale back to pre‑conflict export levels within weeks. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al‑Thani told the FT the undamaged portions of Ras Laffan are ready to ramp up. Investors will watch Hormuz traffic for any reversal that could again curb supply as pricing differentials narrow.