Iran's escalating conflict with regional powers threatens to create the most severe disruption to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ship-tracking data shows LNG trade through the critical Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of global LNG exports, is now effectively halted. This forces Asian buyers, who rely heavily on Qatari supplies (the world's second-largest exporter), to scramble for alternative cargoes.

QatarEnergy has not delayed shipments, but maintenance at its Ras Laffan complex is reducing flows, adding pressure. The Strait of Hormuz's closure is particularly bullish for prices, as is any disruption to Qatari production. Qatar exported 82.2 million tons of LNG in 2025, highlighting its vulnerability. Asian consumers face potential price spikes, reversing recent subdued rates, as spot and long-term contracts linked to oil benchmarks like Brent crude become more expensive. Turkey, importing Iranian pipeline gas, may also need to buy more LNG, further straining supplies. The risk of sustained disruption could force output cuts if exports cannot be maintained through the bottleneck.