Malaysian palm oil exports likely fell last month on weaker-than-usual festival demand in major buyer India. Shipments from the world’s second-largest producer were 1.3 million tons, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of eight plantation executives, traders and analysts. That’s down 8% from July.

Stockpiles swelled about 6% to the highest since January. The tropical oil has climbed around 7% in the third quarter and prices are near a two-year high. The potential for the El Niño weather pattern to dent production in the months ahead, and tightening supply as Indonesia diverts more of its palm oil to biofuels are among the drivers.

The rally could be deterring price-sensitive buyers in India, said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. “Demand was lower than expected because of the availability of cheaper soy oil,” he said. Production likely rose 2% to 1.8 million tons, according to the survey. Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board is due to release official data for August by Sept. 10.