Bond traders are pricing in a Fed interest-rate increase today with a level of conviction that has proven right for decades has proven accurate. Interest-rate swaps tied to Fed meeting dates show traders see about a 94% chance that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will lift the benchmark policy rate by a quarter point from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. This reflects strong market confidence in the Federal Reserve's tightening path despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

The pricing suggests traders believe inflation pressures remain sufficient to justify another rate increase. Such consensus among fixed-income investors often precedes actual policy moves by central banks. The current stance indicates traders are positioning for continued monetary restraint in the near term.