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Last updated: March 23, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

NFL Free Agency Analysis

Evaluating the success rate of massive spending in free agency remains difficult, as an analysis of the largest contracts signed between 2013 and 2022 shows that hefty guarantees do not guarantee stardom for recipients like Brock Osweiler compared to Tom Brady. These historical megadeals from the past decade provide a measuring stick for current spending patterns, showing that while big money often follows top talent, the expected return on investment can be highly variable across the league.