Public Markets 24-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 17, 2026, 5:30 AM ET
Geopolitical Turmoil & Energy Markets
Global markets remain highly susceptible to Middle East instability, with oil prices jumping after Iran stepped up attacks on infrastructure, including drone strikes on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. This surge pushed crude futures to their highest level in nearly four years, though futures prices remain unlikely to sustain current levels according to Julius Baer, which retains a base case of a "short-lived, intense energy price spike." The disruption is particularly impacting refined products, as Goldman Sachs analysts suggest the largest oil shock on record will hit diesel and jet fuel harder than crude itself, a concern reflected in the suspension of oil loadings from the key United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah.
The conflict is profoundly affecting global energy transport and pricing structures. European natural gas prices moved higher in early trading as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to stay minimal until early April, according to Rystad Energy, despite the rare transit of one Hong Kong-owned bulk carrier. Amid these tensions, Europe’s power market is proving resilient to the geopolitical stress, partly due to its pivot toward green power, a development Spain cautioned against suspending the EU Emissions Trading System to combat energy price rises, calling such a move a "big error."
Airlines are feeling the pinch directly, with British Airways extending flight suspensions to several Middle Eastern destinations, including Amman and Dubai, until May 31. This volatility is reigniting the debate over hedging, as some executives argue that market forces like energy spikes must simply be navigated rather than insured against. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration is facing international resistance, as European allies rejected demands to commit warships to a potential armada aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the IMO chief stating that military protection is not a sustainable solution.
Financial impacts are spreading beyond energy. The Middle East conflict and associated energy cost inflation are expected to worsen financial distress among European corporates, while Indonesia’s central bank responded by tightening foreign-exchange rules and maintaining a hawkish stance to stabilize the rupiah against war-related inflationary pressures. For commodity markets, the upheaval has caused a spike in niche metals, with tungsten and germanium prices jumping due to potential supply shortages.
Corporate Finance & Asset Management
In the luxury sector, Kering is consolidating its jewelry brands—including Boucheron and Pomellato—into a single new unit alongside its manufacturing capacities like Raselli Franco Group. However, sentiment across the sector is darkening, with UBS analysts reporting the most bearish outlook on European luxury stocks in years due to fears the Middle East war will delay the anticipated demand rebound. Separately, the world’s largest bunkering hub, Singapore, is seeing dramatic swings in ship fuel prices as distributors cut back purchases amid the escalating conflict.
European banking strategy is focused on growth in specialized lending. BNP Paribas unveiled a 2030 plan targeting a near doubling of pretax income from asset management, building upon its acquisition of AXA Investment Managers. The unit’s asset management chief also pointed to Europe’s specific financing needs and stricter regulation as reasons why the private credit boom can defy a US downturn, even as default rates in the broader direct lending space are forecast by Morgan Stanley to climb to 8%.
Further evidence of market stress is appearing in niche sectors, where lenders are struggling to secure insurance cover for massive data center projects, causing some investors to exit deals. In the UK, Close Brothers shares plummeted 14% after a short-seller alleged the lender had understated risks in its UK car finance portfolio, suggesting provisions might need to rise to £1.23 billion. Meanwhile, private equity giant Apollo is nearing talks for a stake in German packaging machine maker Syntegon, valuing the CVC Capital Partners-owned firm at over €4 billion.
Regulatory & Sovereign Developments
In the UK, regulatory oversight is being tightened, as the government plans to curb the powers of the Financial Ombudsman Service following its broad actions during the multibillion-pound motor finance scandal. In the US, the surprise resignation of the SEC’s Enforcement Chief, Margaret A. Ryan, after only six months, comes as the agency prepares a proposal, following President Trump’s suggestion, to eliminate the quarterly earnings reporting requirement. Further afield, the Swiss National Bank refrained from FX interventions in late 2025, adhering to its commitment to the US not to manipulate the franc for economic gain.
In Asia, regulatory moves are targeting cross-border capital flows. Beijing is reportedly restricting overseas-incorporated Chinese firms from pursuing Hong Kong IPOs, threatening to unravel a long-standing financial strategy that fueled a deal boom. This tightening comes as the Philippines CEO anticipates a standout year for fundraising driven by “mega” IPOs. India’s third-largest pension fund, UTI, is also shifting strategy, pivoting back to bonds after extensive equity buying, which may offer some support to the nation’s distressed debt market.
US Political Economy & Infrastructure
US political maneuvering continues to impact business and foreign policy, with shifting stances on the Iran war drawing criticism over President Trump’s lack of a coherent strategy. On the domestic front, the administration is seeking to reassure sovereign wealth funds against potential tax changes, after foreign investors warned of cutting US exposure. Infrastructure projects are also facing headwinds; in the UK, the Oxford-Cambridge corridor project is set to proceed, with the Chancellor indicating landowners cannot obstruct the plan, while the Rail Baltica high-speed link in the Baltics is now facing a decade-long delay as defense priorities take precedence over the rail expansion.
In energy policy, the government has ordered the resumption of oil transport through a California pipeline following a 2015 rupture, with Sable Offshore restarting flow under an emergency directive, while Terra Energy Center is investing $1 billion in a new Alaskan coal power plant the first in over a decade. Meanwhile, in the financial sector, the collapse of Century Capital has exposed risks in private credit, as Blue Owl's discovery of ‘irregularities’ forced the UK mortgage lender into insolvency.