Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies. The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets. US diesel hit a record high of $6.50 a gallon earlier this month, surging past a previous peak set in 2022. On Monday Donald Trump held talks with advisers over whether to move ahead with a diesel export ban to lower domestic prices. Washington has increased pressure on European allies to release diesel stocks from their reserves.

A US diesel export ban would lower prices in the short term, but analysts said the strategy would ultimately result in higher fuel prices. Buyers in Europe and Latin America would be hit by significantly higher prices, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. The diesel price surge has hit farmers and small businesses in the US, and Republicans fear a voter backlash in the midterms. In Texas, governor Greg Abbott on Monday declared a statewide disaster over diesel prices.