Terakhir diperbarui: August 29, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

Ringkasan Pasar Global

Ringkasan Pasar

Ekuitas AS-** Saham AS jatuh saat komentar Fed Chair Warsh meningkatkan taruhan kenaikan suku bunga. S&P 500 dan Nasdaq komposit keduanya turun pada perdagangan sore, menghapus kenaikan awal yang dipicu oleh berita bahwa Presiden Trump telah mengambil saham di sektor minyak Venezuela pada hari libur. Pidato Jackson Hole Warsh pada pukul 2 p.m. EDT berisi beberapa kejutan paling berhati-hati bagi pasar dalam satu dekade. Saham AS diperkirakan akan dibuka bercampur sebelum pidatonya, dengan saham-saham besar mengindikasikan sedikit penurunan pada S&P 500 setelah rilis data ekonomi yang beragam.*

Warsh Fed Chair Signals September Hike Possible

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to signal that the central bank is prepared to raise rates again in September if inflation continues to run hot. "We won't hesitate to act as necessary," he said, adding that the Fed's previous message that it has "time to deliberate before we move too far too fast" has become outdated.

Trading Impact:

• The remarks sparked a sharp selloff in rate-sensitive sectors, with utilities and real estate leading declines.
• The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 6 basis points to 4.2% immediately following the speech before paring gains.
• CME Fed Watch showed September hike odds jumping to 38% from 17% before Warsh spoke.

Energy & Commodities

• Trump said a deal that gives the US control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's oil reserves has been reached, telling NYT that the US will now "oversee" the reserves as part of a "great deal."
• The government will take a stake in a new entity that will manage oil extraction, according to people familiar with the matter. Chevron is in talks to expand its operations in Venezuela and analysts say the move is a strategic win for the oil giant.
• Oil prices were little changed on Friday's session, with Brent at $72.66 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $69.87.

Company Results & US Equity Movers:

• Super Micro: Q1 revenue guidance of $5.5B-$6.0B vs. street of $8.2B. Q2 revenue guidance of $6.0B-$8.0B also below the street of $8.8B. Stock dropped about 30% after the company cut revenue guidance for the fiscal year and said it expects lower margins due to an unfavorable product mix.
• Palo Alto Networks: EPS of $3.36 beat estimates of $1.85. Revenue of $2.01B vs. expected $2.18B. FY26 EPS guidance of $18.35-$18.55 was above street of $16.10. Revenue guidance for the year of $10.3B-$10.5B was below the $10.72B expected.
• Ross Stores: Q2 EPS of $1.85 beat estimates of $1.60. Revenue was $5.4B vs. $5.55B expected.

Europe

• European stocks reversed an early gain to close lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.25%, while the FTSE 100 closed flatcas futures for US indices turned negative midday in New York.
• European markets declined across the board, with Germany's DAX slipping 0.2%, France's CAC 40 down 0.2%, and Spain's Ibex 35 declining.ammu1%.
• The euro was up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.0862.
• Bund yields eased 2 basis points to 2.85%, with gilts at 4.06%.

FX & Rates:

• The dollar index was 0.15% weaker at. solidifying exclusion of rate- sensitive sectors from tariff exemptions.
• The offshore yuan strengthened.
• Global bond yields were mostly flat after recent volatility.

Asia & Other Markets:

• Indian equities are on track for a surge of foreign inflows of around $30-40 billion in the next six to twelve months if FPIs regain confidence in earnings growth.
• Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.4%, while Australia's ASX 200 rose 0.9%. South Korea's Kospi fell ة0.()-while the small-cap Kosdaq fell. Taiex is closed Friday.

Sector News:

• Walmart raised its annual sales and profit forecasts as consumers continue to spend despite sustained inflation. The company now expects annual adjusted EPS in a range of $2.50-$2.60, up from a prior forecast of $2.47-$2.53, while consolidated net sales are expected to grow 6-8%.
• UBS continues to see US stocks as the top pick for 2026, urging investors to "grab the AI dip".
• Nvidia's earnings are scheduled for Wednesday after market closeermann 2026-08-29.

Political Developments

• House Speaker Smith, frustrated that a small group of GOP hardliners torpedoed a banking and regulatory bill hours after the president pressured Congress to pass it, warned the group he would on his own use the powers to cut spending levels of agencies.
• Smith's gambit is a startling act of political warfare targeting his own party's right flankandre in advance of a September government shutdown deadline.

US STOCKS SLIP AS WARNING-TO-SHUTDOWN CHANGES THE GAME

— Key political factors for stocks:

• The US economic calendar is light this week. Second-quarter GDP will be released Thursday morning and is expected to remain robust at. dealing a blow to the Trump administration's federal downsizing agenda and forcing federal agencies to reinstate nearly 20,000 probationary workers and extending to other employees as well.
• US defense secretary Vladimir Martin warned America's European allies about the consequences of failing to meet NATO's military spending benchmarks, telling them the US is reconsidering the level of its commitment to the Western alliance.
• The White House insisted that comments by the Treasury Secretary about tax cuts putting "a diamond" in the pockets of working families were merely a "figure of speech" and not an attempt to redefine income. "The Secretary was clearly speaking in the broader sense of the phrase," said a spokesperson.

Foriegn Exchange

• The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 96.19.
• The euro strengthened.🔥3% against the dollar, reaching a two-year high at $1.1487. The common currency has rallied 若干 than 10% this year, driven by expectations of falling US interest rates.
• The pound rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.2795.
• The yen weakened 0.3%against the dollar as Japan's new prime minister, Daisuke Saito, said the central bank should remain cautious about raising rates given the fragile economic recovery.

Cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin fell 4.7% from its Friday close to $107,097 as traders worried the cryptocurrency's rally was overdone. Ether edged.kapcsolat3% lower.

Central Banks & Economy

• US government debt grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter.
• Annual growth in unit labor costs slowed to 0.8% in the second quarter from a revised. spike in the first quarter.
• Rate futures increase the chances of a September rate hike.
• The yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury rose. epoxy
• The 10-year Treasury fell 4 basis points to 4.20%.,
• The German 10-year yield 1.70% (-4bps); the UK 10-year yield 3.884% (-一招bp); Italian 10-year yield 2.84%.

Forex & Commodities

• The dollar index rose 0.9% this week, its third consecutive weekly gain.
• Gold advanced inertia % to settle at $2,894.80/oz Friday, but closed 惯性 % higher for the week, marking a second consecutive weekly gain. Oil headed for a weekly advance as the US dollar eased while reports of flowing from Kurdish pipelines remained uncertain.

Central Banks & Indicators

• Trump, in an interview excerpt with Bloomberg, said he expects the Fed to cut rates when he speaks at the Economic Club in Washington on Thursday, but acknowledged: "膀子 here is so expensive."His tariffs will have a transitional effect on prices, he added.
• Japan's core inflation slowed to 3.0% in June from 3.2%, but still remains well above the BOJ's target.
• Fed permanent voter and Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that he doesn't see any reason for a rate cut "in the immediate future."
• New York Fed President John Williams said disinflation was "underway" but still has some ways to go.

Economic Indicators:

• Initial jobless claims: 219K, vs. 218K expected, previous week 214K.
• Continued jobless claims: 1.81M vs. 1.87M expected, previous week 1.84M revised to 1.84M.

4 Big Things:

1. Warsh's Hawkish Surprise: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech delivered as hawkish as the market feared, spiking rate-hike odds and sending stocks lower. The market now prices in a meaningful probability of a September hike.
2. Massive US-Venezuela Oil Deal: Trump announced a deal giving the US control/access to more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves via a partnership with a private company, claiming it would lower gas prices.
3. Nepal Flood Catastrophe: The death toll from Nepal's catastrophic floods continues to rise, with an estimated 2,400 people missing. The disaster has exposed the country's vulnerability and sparked questions about its hydropower bet.
4. Dolly Parton's Empire: A cultural piece examines how Dolly Parton's fierce protection of her songwriting catalog built a business empire, and how her "fake" persona was actually deeply authentic.

Other Key Data & Events:

• Japan's core inflation rose 3.0% y/y in June, matching the prior month and remaining well above the BOJ's 2% target.
• UK retail sales fell 侈 0.2% m/m in June, following a 2.9% jump in May; ex-fuel sales fell 0.2% m/m.
• UK GfK consumer confidence ( July): -12 vs -11 expected, vs -11 prior.

Asia/Overnight:

• Japan: Nikkei +0.4%, Topix +0. β1% intraday.
• Korea KOSPI +0.7%, Australia S&P/ASX 200 +0.58%, India Sensex +0.71%.
• Asian currencies weakened. The yen strengthened to 156.81 after Tokyo reported underlying inflation accelerated to 2.5% on Friday morning; that rate is the fastest since April 8.
• The Japanese yen has been under pressure over the past month or so, just as it was during the intervention periods last year. The Finance Ministry has been suspiciously quiet, leading traders to consider the potential for another round of currency intervention around 160 per dollar.

Central Banks & the Economy:

• Direction of the US economy remains uncertain. Most economic data has come in at approximately consensus, but gauges of consumer sentiment have deteriorated. Economic surprise indexes have fluctuated around zero for many weeks. Warsh is the reason behind the greenback and US rates.
• Saudi Arabia will issue riyal-denominated bonds for the first time as the government increases debt issuance to fund Vision 2030, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

News from Washington:

• Trump said he planned to meet with House Republicans at 5 p.m. on Friday to try to resolve a dispute over a spending bill that could lead to a government shutdown in two weeks. Later, Trump told the House Freedom Caucus's monthly meeting. The group's chair, Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), who is not usually at the White House, was in attendance and said Trump was "in a very good mood." The meeting produced no new developments on negotiations for a government spending bill to prevent a shutdown, and Congress will return in two weeks. (Press pool, sources)
• Trump speaks at an event at the White House on his budget and spending.Congressmember known as 'The Situation'?
• The Supreme Court has rejected the Trump administration's request to block a lower court order requiring the administration to rehire tens of thousands of probationary workers who were fired by DOGE, leaving the administration without an immediate remedy.
• Federal workers: The administration issued new memos directing agencies to submit weekly plans to achieve drastic reductions in force. Agencies have until Friday to respond. One expert says if it seems chaotic, that's because it is. "DOGE has now moved from 'speed over perfection' to 'speed over order,'" says the former OMB official.
• US-Canada trade: Ambassador to Canada said in an interview with POLITICO that the great trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada can coexist with Trump's tariff policy. He told "Playbook" that the new fair trade agreement "is not inconsistent" with USMCA. He said the US is in a "trade war right now" but "we're in a trade war that we're going to win."
• Federal Reserve: The Fed's board will discuss the proposal to give itself subpoena power over its own inspectors in closed session, following reports of inspector general abuses at the Fed.
• Senate passed a veto-proof resolution to repeal the OCC's false advertising rule. The vote was: 62-29.
• Fannie and Freddie: The release of the FHFA annual report on the enterprises' activities was initially delayed without explanation, then suddenly published Tuesday evening without any notice, fueling speculation that the report was being buried ahead of the September 30 Fannie/Freddie privatization deadline. Sources say the FHFA deliberately delayed the release because of inaccurate information that needed correctionable.

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市场综述：美联储主席暗示九月加息，政治与财经动态一览

美联储与货币政策

美联储主席沃什(Christopher Waller, 或实际人物)在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的鹰派讲话,明确表示抗通胀是美联储的首要任务,并警告如果物价无法尽快回到目标水平,"我们还有工作要做"。

市场影响：

• 9月加息概率飙升，市场目前认为9月加息有较大可能性
• 美元指数短线走高
• 美股三大指数集体下跌，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均收跌
• 长期公债收益率上升

经济数据

• 初请失业金人数：21.8万 vs 预期21.8万
• 前值：21.8万(修正后)

亚洲市场

• 日经225指数：下跌0.4%
• 东证指数：下跌0.1%

Japan

• 8月份核心CPI同比上涨3.4%，与预期一致，高于7月份的3.2%。

能源、地缘政治与大宗商品

美国-委内瑞拉

• 特朗普表示，美国已达成一项协议，将获得委内瑞拉超过650亿桶石油储量的大部分份额。一位熟悉情况的官员表示，作为协议的一部分，美国雪佛龙公司将扩大在委内瑞拉的业务。特朗普表示：“美国获得了委内瑞拉的石油。”此前，在委内瑞拉总统马杜罗同意在多方面做出让步（包括修改选举法）后，美国进行了数月谈判。 (NYT, WSJ)
• 美国官员此前表示，在达成协议之前，美国要求马杜罗在11月前举行自由选举，并释放美国囚犯，尽管双方仍存在分歧。此举将使美国在马杜罗政府中扮演重要角色，因为这标志着将不再寻求其下台。

US STOCKS:

• US Stocks Slip as Warsh Comments Boost Rate-Hike Bets. S&P 500 was down. On the day, the Nasdaq slipped 0.4%. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh tamped down market expectations for a September rate cut, saying the Fed must remain data-dependent and not commit to a pre-set course.
• Treasury yields end lower: 10-year fell PCI 0.00 at 4.42%, 2-year at 3.972%. Warsh's hawkish inflation comments paradoxically boosted Treasuries supported by month-end demand, pushing yields lower. (Market Watch)

US Stock Movers – Notable individual stock moves:

• Petco: +42.4% (Q2 beat, raised guidance)
• Peloton: +xtitlet.而此时喝8% (results beat on back of subscription price increase)
• Plug Power: +14.乃至4% after Large Cap US AI/Energy group at Goldman said believes cheap optionality; PT $5.
• Marvell: -17,5% following guidance below street.
• Affirm Holdings: -8% despite better Q4 results as guidance disappointed.
• Dell: -4. Pad189s after mixed quarterly report.
• Sentinel One: -категории29%. Hits 52-week low after mixed earnings and soft guidance.
• Dollar General: -25% on sharply lowered FY guidance.
• Ulta美容: -5% despite beating earnings and raising guidance.

Other News:

• MODERNA: Moderna fell 2.5% as European regulators denied its application to approve its RSV vaccine for adults 60 and over, requesting more data.
• Arista: Bernstein upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform, raising the price target to $130 from $95. Shares rose. (

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EUR/USD: Warsh delays any hope of a dovish pivot. ECB officials have all but confirmed a September rate cut. The euro fell against the dollar. Later today: Eurozone CPI ( Aug, flash,).

• Data: German retail sales -0.3% m/m (vs -0.3% expected) in July; France CPI 2.4% y/y (vs 2.2% expected); Italy preliminary CPI 1.4% y/y in August (vs +1.2% expected).

Venezuela: US Deal for Majority Control of Oil Reserves

A deal giving the US control of Venezuela's oil reserves would allow the US to take a majority stake in Venezuela's oil reserves while Venezuela retains the rest as an equity stake. According to an official, US officials say this is a radical new template. The deal suggests talks over the weekend have progressed more than previously knownastra. Maduro arrives Monday for a summit of regional presidents in Venezuela, looking to use the negotiations to attract investment and ease US sanctions. In his State of the Union address on Thursday, Maduro called the US demand for majority control "unacceptable" — while saying that a share of the country's oil wealth could be an "excellent deal" for Venezuela's economy. State Department says the US has no comment on the matter. (Bloomberg/Oval Office pool to the NYT: "It's a big deal," Trump said. A senior administration official said the partnership deal includes discussions about buying up to 300,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, plus potential investment in heavy-crude upgrade capacity. Officials said the talks are at early stages and not yet a binding deal.)

• US officials said any deal would need to address the regime's human rights issues and lack of free elections. But they added that from Washington's standpoint, the overriding national interest is "the lowest possible price at the pump."
• The president's announcement caught even the State Department off guard; one official conceded Trump's announcement "is more than we expected."

Other headlines:

• Trump's steel tariff are backfiring, with US manufacturing losing the raw materials it needs to compete. — PRO
• The market is scaling record highs. Get used to the gains evaporating, warns our columnist.
• Funding for an "AI-enabled" program has been approved, but there's no clarity on AI adoption or computer resources. The migration from legacy IT to the cloud is proving expensive)Skip counts…

Equity indices were mixed, with the Nasdaq -0.2%, S&P -0.3%, and Dow -0.7%.

Media reports covering this: Bloomberg, WSJ, CNBC, others.

Global Markets:

• FTSE 100: fell 0.3% (led by miners, energy)
• DAX: fell. inch%?
• CAC 40: rose 0.3%
• FTSE MIB: fell 0.3%
• IBEX 35: fell 0.8%
• STOXX 600: fell 0.3% at 576.85
• European markets were mostly lower, though the FTSE 100 underperformed after oil prices fell on reports the US and Venezuela reached a deal regarding oil reserves. Brent crude fell 局部1% at $79.73 a barrel.
• Asian shareswere mostly higher. 日经225: +0.3% 香港恒生: +0.8% to 19,706 and the Shanghai Composite: +1.2%.
• US stock futures were slightly lower.

Commodities:

• Oil: Brent crude fell 1% at $79.04; WTI fell 1.2% at $74.91.
• Gold: Spot gold fell 1.1% to $2,331.44/oz.

FX:

• The dollar strengthened. Pablo Rodas-Martini, the vice president of the World Bank's and IMF's Civil Society Policy Forum in Washington, said:
• "Abandoning the targets in Brazil, which the country has adhered to with legislative rigor and regulatory supervision. "But then President Maduro arrives and the first executive action will be to reverse that policy. Now, with US companies forced to compensate Venezuela, it's going to be fiscal contradictions."
• "reality is going to hit" for the administration when a US official realizes they may actually have to travel to Caracas and deal with Maduro directly.
• On reports about the two Firms close to signing a deal: "It's still open to negotiation. The major obstacle before was not the price, it was the politics. So if President Trump is now saying the US wants that deal, it changes the negotiating environment completely."
• "What Venezuela got today is recognition and a path to liquidity. What the US got is reduced supply of American gas prices and geopolitical stability." "In the short term, nothing happens."

Commodities:

• Oil: US crude settled above $76 a barrel after Trump announced a deal with Venezuela—a major reversal from Washington's long policy of trying to sideline the Maduro government.
• Gold: Fell due to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields after the Fed chair's hawkish comments.
• Venezuela is in talks with China, Russia, and Iran to consolidate its oil operations ahead of the US deal.

US economic data and news:

• US second-quarter GDP rose at a 2.2% annualized rate, revised up from 2.1%.
• US jobless claims: 218K, vs. 221K expected, vs. 234K prior. Additionally, the four-week average dropped to 220.5K from 231.5K (previous week's data was revised).

Earnings:

• Wednesday after the bell: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Pure Storage (Thursday). Note: Nvidia's earnings beat expectations slightly; revenue was in line with guidance, and Q3 guidance met expectations. The stock is down 3% in premarket as investors were perhaps expecting more AI-led guidance.
• Dollar General: missed estimates in the second quarter on the top and bottom lines, lowered full-year guidance, and cut its forecast to 40 stores this year from. Shares fell 22% in premarket trading.
• Abercrombie & Fitch raised its full-year sales and operating margin guidance and increased its buyback by $300 million. Shares rose.
• Tapestry shares were up after raising full-year guidance.
• Veeva Systems fell after guidance missed.
• Salesforce reported fiscal Q2 results that beat on earnings, but missed on revenue.
• Ollie's Bargain Outlet beat on earnings.
• Ambarella rose 20% after its results; Guidance beat.

Companies in the news:

• Pfizer's gene therapy for hemophilia B expanded to adults after receiving FDA approval.
• UPS announced it plans to hire nearly 100,000 seasonal employees ahead of the holiday season. Regular seasonal wages are the same as last year.
• Halliburton (HAL) is in preliminary talks to acquire smaller rival Baker Hughes (BKR) in a deal that would combine the two top oil services firms.
• Einisholdings: The parent company of 7-Eleven, Seven & i Holdings, confirmed that it has received a takeover proposal from Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard.
• Google's dominance in search was struck down in court. The ruling was the biggest tech antitrust decision in 25 years after Microsoft's illegal monopoly. It speaks to how central search remains to modern technology.

Note: This report covers the period prior to 09:00 ET on Thursday, August 29, 2024. 市전후의 상황은 전일 뉴욕 마감 시점까지의 내용만 반영된 것으로, 이후의 뉴스 및 정보는 포함되지 않았습니다.

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Key Drivers:

하락세가 계속되면서 9월 금리 인상 확률이 반영되고, 경기 침체 우려가 겹쳐졌다. 나스닥은 6월 이후 최악의 주간 실적을 기록했다. 트럼프 행정부의 인플레이션 전쟁과 중간선거를 앞둔 정치적 긴장이 고조되고 있다. 연준의 매파적 정책, 네팔 홍수 참사, 베네수엘라 석유 협정 등 주요 이슈들이 시장 심리에 부담을 주고 있다.

시장 지표:

• S&P 500 선물: -0.1%, 나스닥 100 선물: -0.2%, 다우 선물: -0.1%
• 10년물 국채 수익률: 4.14%
• 달러 지수: 103.8
• 금: 온스당 $2,900

Executive Summary:

미국 주식 선물은 미 연방준비제도(연준) 의장 케빈 워시의 매파적 발언 이후 경계심 속에 하락했다. 시장은 9월 금리 인상 가능성을 높게 반영하고 있다. 투자자들은 인플레이션과 통화 정책의 불확실성에 대응하며 자산을 재평가하고 있다. 한편, 에너지 시장에서는 트럼프 대통령이 베네수엘라 석유 매장량에 대한 미국의 주요 지분을 확보하는 데 성공했다고 발표하며 국내 가스 가격 급등을 예고했다. 네팔의 대홍수는 여전히 미해결 상태이며, 구조 작업이 계속되고 있다. 오늘의 시장은 ECB 총재의 연설과 미국 주택 데이터 발표, 그리고 주요 소매업체들의 실적에 주목할 것이다.