The Carolina Hurricanes take on the Montreal Canadiens in Game 5 of the 2026 Eastern Conference finals at Bell Centre, Montreal. Carolina, after a 4‑0 win Wednesday, leads the best‑of‑seven 3‑1 and seeks its first Stanley Cup appearance since 2005‑06. Montreal, a 48‑24‑10 club, aims for its first final since 2020‑21 in the NHL playoffs this season's.

SportsLine’s Projection Model, having earned a +668 return on top‑rated money‑line picks, simulates the matchup 10,000 times. It names the Hurricanes –249 favorites and the Canadiens +202 underdogs, with a 5.5‑goal over/under. The model projects a 58% chance the total will exceed the line, a value play for bettors in the current betting market today.

Key performers shape the simulation: Seth Jarvis is expected to net .44 goals and .47 assists, while Frederik Andersen should make 18.3 saves and allow 2.88 goals. Montreal’s Cole Caufield projects .53 goals and .43 assists; goaltender Jakub Dobes faces 26.3 saves and concedes 3.17. Combined, the model estimates 6.3 goals in this decisive game.

With Carolina holding a commanding series lead and the odds favoring them, the Canadiens must deliver a high‑scoring turnaround to keep the series alive. A 6‑goal performance would trim the Hurricanes’ margin, but the model’s 58% over probability suggests more offense than defense will decide the outcome for the franchise’s historic championship run this season.