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Public Markets

Last updated: July 9, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Middle East Tensions Spark Market Volatility

US military strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day and Tehran's retaliation against American allies in the Persian Gulf. S&P 500 Index futures climbed 0.2% in premarket trading, though emerging-market stocks extended their declines as risk appetite fluctuated. Investors are watching US-Iran tensions, oil price movements, and developments in artificial intelligence. Oil prices remained elevated above pre-conflict levels after the fresh exchange of fire, with refined products like gasoline and diesel proving "stickier" in their price increases. European natural gas prices edged lower as traders assessed the supply picture. Pakistan is urgently seeking liquefied natural gas after hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies.

Tech Stock Trade Shows Cracks Amid Shifting Sentiment

The dominant tech trade of 2026, characterized by buying chip stocks and selling software, is. Sentiment around artificial intelligence stocks has soured, contributing to declines in emerging markets. BlackRock sees AI capital expenditures remaining stable for two to three years, though tech giants may begin raising debt to fund investments. Meanwhile, Nigerian equities have surpassed South Korea's Kospi, delivering the highest dollar-based returns this year, as sentiment on AI stocks weakens. Taiwan's central bank chief has cautioned investors against borrowing to invest in the island's high-flying stocks, particularly those tied to AI.

Corporate Dealmaking and Sector Performance

Hugo Boss AG has recommended shareholders reject Frasers Group Plc’s takeover offer, deeming the €2.7 billion ($2.2 bid inadequate and failing to reflect the German fashion company's long-term value. Barclays Plc is preparing to sell approximately $875 million in debt financing to fund the takeover of UK aerospace. Prologis is pushing for talks on its $16.9 billion bid for Segro, urging shareholders to encourage their board to engage. Goldman Sachs predicts Erste Group Bank AG shares will rally 30%, driven by growth from its Polish expansion.

Economic Indicators and Policy Moves

Serbia maintained its benchmark interest rate for a record 22nd month, as government plans for pre-election cash handouts may. Germany's exports unexpectedly rose in May, marking a fourth consecutive month of growth, largely due to a rebound in shipments to the US. France plans a €2 billion investment to reduce dependence on fertilizer imports, aiming to shield farmers from future supply disruptions. Investors believe the UK’s plan for long-dated debt sales needs reconsideration, as political uncertainty could force a scaling back of planned offerings.

Geopolitical Shifts and Defense Spending

Germany has agreed to purchase US Tomahawk missiles, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz reaching an agreement with Washington during the. European defense sector valuations still have considerable upside potential as government commitments to boost military spending translate into orders, according to a BNP Paribas banker. Much of the world, which had feared abandonment by the United States, is experiencing a new beginning as an isolationist America recedes.

Commodity Markets and Trade Dynamics

India's efforts to secure cooking gas supplies during past disruptions have resulted in a surplus of cooking gas for. Australia has agreed to sell uranium to India for power generation in a landmark deal signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit. China's largest solar manufacturer is replacing silver with copper in its cells to counter soaring silver prices, which have impacted the industry.

Private Equity

Last updated: July 9, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Private Equity Dealmaking and Platform Building

KKR unveiled a new medical technology platform named Allyntra, built around Precipart, an existing portfolio company. This move signals KKR's strategic expansion within the healthcare sector. Elsewhere, backed Coalesce, acquired payroll service provider Paymasters Inc., broadening its human resources outsourcing solutions. Bregal's Juniper Landscaping platform also expanded its footprint by acquiring aquatic maintenance firms Compass Environmental and Aquatic Weeds. Arrow Global signed a deal to acquire Fusion Specialty Group, a managing general agent that has written approximately £290 million in gross premiums.

Sector Focus and Market Sentiment

Searchlight’s James identified B2B events and blue-collar services as high-conviction areas for the firm, suggesting selective deal activity will increase in the second half of the year as the bid-ask gap narrows. Redmayne also noted a bifurcation in the market, with premium assets attracting buyer interest while more cyclical businesses struggle. The secondaries market is also expected to see an uptick in activity during H2 after a challenging first half, according to market advisors. Several private equity firms, including Ares, Littlejohn, Palladium, and TPG, are reportedly evaluating the sale of environmental service providers in the coming months.

Venture Capital and European Startup Growth

Europe experienced its strongest venture funding quarter in four years during Q2, with startups raising approximately $24 billion, a roughly one-third increase quarter-over-quarter. In specific investments, PSG Equity agreed to a majority growth investment in Bright Analytics, a Belgian corporate performance management software provider serving over 1,300 customers across Europe. World Fund and IQ Capital were among the backers of a €91 million round for Quantumdiamonds. O2 Investment Partners appointed Micah Dawson as an operating partner to drive value across its portfolio companies.

Sector Investment

Last updated: July 9, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Infrastructure Focus

Australia’s Rest pension fund plans to continue deploying capital into infrastructure, with its head of private markets noting the asset class’s long time horizons benefit its younger member base.