Markets 3 Days

Public Markets

Market Moves

The S&P 500 fell sharply after volatile trading, marking its first two-week loss since June. Gold edged higher in the early morning Asian session on possible position adjustments, while oil gained as traders weighed the odds of a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran ahead of talks on Thursday. The S&P 500 ended lower after volatile trading, extending a loss in the previous session.

Deals & M&A

Raistone Capital filed for liquidation after being done in by the collapse of auto parts supplier First Brands Group. Entrata is working with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan on an IPO, while Elevance Health’s president emphasized utilization as a key driver of rising healthcare costs.

Earnings & Guidance

Boston Beer reported lower fourth-quarter revenue and warned that shifting tariff policies could significantly impact its guidance. Cava saw revenue rise 21% on higher prices and new restaurant openings. Lucid cut its US workforce by 12% to reduce costs by about $500 million over three years.

AI Impact

AI-linked fears roiled some corners of Wall Street after years of hype and gains, while Nvidia’s stake in Applied Digital and Arm Holdings surged over 7,200% since its IPO. Cavar’s fourth-quarter sales rose on higher prices and new restaurant openings.

Macro & Policy

Japan may intervene to buy yen amid speculation. The US Federal Reserve’s rate hold reduced expectations for near-term cuts, while Ecuador eyed a $4B bond sale return.

Corporate Moves

Honda suspended operations at its Mexican plant over cartel violence. Mercado Libre shares rose as revenue beat estimates, while Workday forecasted up to 13% subscription growth.

Tech & Innovation

The Nasdaq bounced back after AMD-Meta deal on AI chips, while First Solar posted higher profit on increased revenue. Core Weave sought an $8.5B loan from banks including Morgan Stanley to finance Meta cloud capacity.

Finance & Markets

Bof A upgraded Smucker but cut General Mills on slower recovery. Stripe valuation soared to $159B in a share sale, while HP dialed down fiscal-year expectations due to memory chip costs.

International

Telecom Italia set a €400M stock buyback and reverse split. China evaluated Trump’s tariff ruling, while Japan’s corporate governance code revision aimed to free $840B in cash.

Summary

Market volatility persisted amid AI fears, tariff uncertainties, and earnings revisions. Gold and oil fluctuated on geopolitical risks, while tech stocks rebounded on AI deals. Corporate restructurings and geopolitical tensions continued to shape investor sentiment.

Private Equity

Market Outlook & LP Dynamics

Blackstone's Jon Gray predicts 2026 will mark a record year for exits and secondaries volume as exit volumes move assets' cashflows forward. Meanwhile, CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost emphasized that more visibility on portfolio company data will help the $613.7 billion pension better manage its risk. The push for transparency comes as LP-GP alignment faces unprecedented challenges, with Texas TRS's Mike Lazorik telling delegates at PEI Group's NEXUS 2026 event that alignment "has never been more complicated" due to compressed returns and lack of exits.

Infrastructure & Secondary Markets

GIC has emerged as the lead buyer on Meridiam's €2 billion+ continuation vehicle, which will consist of 22 infrastructure assets from legacy funds. The secondary market continues to evolve rapidly, with Lazard reporting that 40% of GPs expect to consider continuation vehicles in the next two years. Over half of GPs cited returning capital to existing LPs as the primary reason for launching CVs, while mid-market sponsors increasingly turn to larger vehicles, with CV-on-CVs expected to become more prevalent.

Deal Activity & Portfolio Moves

KKR is lining up a $1 billion IPO exit for Global Medical Response, appointing banks for the potential US listing. In the healthcare sector, Frazier Healthcare-backed Rev Spring has acquired healthcare tech firm Trust Commerce from Waud Capital Partners. The industrials space saw Victor Capital back Specialty Fenestration Group, parent company of Quikserv Inc. and Us Bullet Proofing, while Arcline invested in Hydraulics International Inc., which serves US and allied defense forces globally.

Regional & Sector Trends

Private equity firms have more than tripled their share of London office acquisitions over the past three years, now accounting for a significant portion of the £1.68 billion retrofit push. In the US, Bluestone Equity Partners has announced a three-year partnership with USA Archery ahead of the 2028 Games, strengthening its sports portfolio. The defense sector continues to attract PE interest, with retired Vice Admiral William Hilarides finding new purpose backing defense industry companies through Ventus Industrial.

Technology & AI Disruption

Thoma Bravo's Holden Spaht and New York's Anastasia Titarchuk discussed how GPs and LPs view AI disruption at the NEXUS 2026 summit. Meanwhile, Hg seeks AI adoption at portfolio companies through a new initiative as water infrastructure draws increased interest from PE firms. EQT-backed Scale Microgrids scooped up Reload, expanding its advanced energy solutions portfolio, while Crestview-backed One Magnify acquired Optimal's performance marketing business.

Fundraising & Investment Strategies

OMERS reported $8.2 billion in net income for 2025, though private equity lagged its broader portfolio with a 6% net investment return. Qatar Investment Authority has committed several hundred million dollars to 5C to expand private credit capabilities. In Saudi Arabia, Jada Fund of Funds plans to ramp up private credit deployment as Stride targets $200 million in Saudi investments.

Operational & Strategic Moves

Shamrock snapped up creative agency Mutiny from Trailer Park Group, which incubated the division in 2021. Topspin injected capital into manufacturer Grid, a partner to fitness chains and athletic programs. Bay Hawk invested in Gridco, with the founding management team retaining majority ownership and continuing to lead the business.

Regulatory & Market Structure

Josh Harris of 26North warned that mixing unaccredited investor capital with wealth capital via vehicles with differing levels of regulation could lead to a backlash against the industry. Meanwhile, Ardian has partnered with Legal & General to provide private equity access to 5.6 million UK defined contribution savers, opening the asset class to retail investors.

Portfolio Company Exits

Turning Rock exited food company Ameri Qual, which is majority owned by the Harlan family. Miura and Mindful Capital agreed to sell Italcer to Austrian listed company Wienerberger. In the energy sector, Parex submitted a rival bid for Catalyst-backed Frontera's Colombian upstream business, proposing to buy Frontera Petroleum International Holdings for $500 million in cash.

Industry Appointments & Leadership

ECI Partners welcomed Marijn Pangemanan as new investment director while appointing Scarlett Salamon as investor relations analyst. Angeles Equity Partners tapped Eric Dunn as VP for its operating team, where he will evaluate new investment opportunities and drive post-close transformation across the portfolio. Evercore appointed Adams Street Partners' executive as new APAC secondaries head following Shane Gong's departure.

Market Performance & Valuations

Bain's latest report shows global buyout deal value surged to $904 billion in 2025, with the mantra "12 is the new 5" reshaping returns expectations. The report indicates dealmaking rebounded sharply as more GPs shake off economic uncertainty and valuation qualms to put more money to work and speed up distributions to investors.

Sector Investment

Infrastructure Investment

New guidance for US renewables developers clarifies FEOC rules, bringing helpful clarity to the sector. Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners is exploring a minority stake sale while CVC DIF reached €3.5 billion in its double fundraise. Prime Capital extended its debut infrastructure debt fund fundraising by six months to capitalize on resurgent investor appetite.

Real Estate Investment

Stoneweg targets €1 billion in European residential investment for 2026 following its 2024 acquisition of Cromwell's European business. Nuveen seeks to recapitalize its €1 billion Nordic self-storage platform Green Storage by bringing in third-party capital. New Bedford Retirement Board issued an RFP for value-add real estate managers with up to $12 million in allocations.

Healthcare Investment

West View Capital Partners made a minority investment in Benefits All In, a Cincinnati-based provider of employee healthcare benefits founded in 2014. The deal underscores continued interest in healthcare services platforms despite market uncertainty.

Private Equity Strategy

Blackstone Strategic Partners is leading EQT's evergreen vehicle for Edge Connex, expected to reach $2 billion with room for expansion. The move highlights continued infrastructure investment despite regulatory challenges facing the sector.