Argentina erased a 2-0 deficit against Egypt in the last 16, winning 3-2 after Lionel Messi scored and assisted to become the oldest player with a goal and assist in a World Cup match. He also passed Diego Maradona for the all-time assist lead with nine. Yet the defining moment came when Messi missed a first-half penalty — his second of the tournament after failing against Austria in the group stage. No player has ever missed two normal-time penalties at a single World Cup.

Messi's World Cup penalty record sits at four conversions from eight attempts excluding shootouts. His career rate of 77% (114 of 148) trails Harry Kane (90.7%), Cristiano Ronaldo (85.2%), Erling Haaland (84.1%) and Kylian Mbappe (81.0%) across major competitions. Opta values each penalty at 0.79 expected goals, meaning Messi has underperformed the average taker. He admitted breaking down in tears after the Egypt match, saying he felt he had let his team-mates down.

Leandro Paredes (92.9%), Alexis Mac Allister (91.7%), Enzo Fernandez (91.7%) and Julian Alvarez (89.5%) all boast superior conversion rates. Yet Lionel Scaloni refused to strip Messi of the role: "If he wants to take them, he'll take them." At Qatar 2022 Messi converted six of seven penalties, including shootout openers against the Netherlands and France.

Argentina have earned eight penalties across the last two World Cups — double any other nation. They have survived Messi's misses twice. A third miss in the quarter-finals against Switzerland could end their title defence. The data suggests a change is rational; the dressing-room dynamics make it unlikely.