Nottingham Forest's 5-0 demolition of Sunderland on Friday pushed them to 39 points, eight clear of Tottenham and six ahead of West Ham. The win marked their eighth unbeaten league game and widened the gap to the bottom three for the first time this season. Manager Vitor Pereira cautioned that the tally is not a safety net, reminding the squad that every point still matters.

Historically, no side with exactly 39 points after 34 games has been relegated, and the average 18th‑place total sits around 35 points, dropping to under 30 in the last five campaigns. Only Birmingham and Blackpool fell with 39 points in 2010‑11, suggesting Forest and Leeds, now on 40, sit on a narrow cushion. Opta’s model now places a 99% probability that the final drop will be decided between Tottenham and West Ham.

Tottenham travel to Wolves while West Ham host Everton in Saturday’s simultaneous fixtures, each needing a win to keep survival hopes alive. Spurs have not won since last season, whereas the Hammers have collected two victories in their last five. With Opta rating Tottenham’s relegation risk at 61% versus West Ham’s 38%, the battle now resembles a two‑horse race, and the final drop will likely be decided by which side slips in the remaining six games.