SportsLine’s projection model has run 10,000 simulations of Game 1 of the 2026 Western Conference finals between the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche. The matchup kicks off Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET in Denver’s Ball Arena, with the Avs entering as heavy favorites after posting a league‑high 121 points and a 55‑16‑11 record and aim to clinch the series early.

The model lists the Avs at -173 on the money line, while Vegas sits at +144. Total goals are projected at 6, with over favored in 53 % of simulations. Colorado’s offense averaged 4.11 goals per game this season, the league’s best, whereas the Knights ranked third at 3.67. Scorers include Nathan MacKinnon (.67 goals, .98 assists) and Pavel Dorofeyev (.46 goals) and they both excel on the power play.

SportsLine’s track record shows a +668 return on top‑rated money‑line picks this postseason, suggesting confidence in the Avs‑to‑cover bet. Goalies Carter Hart and Scott Wedgewood are projected to allow 3.45 and 2.92 goals respectively, reinforcing the expectation of a high‑scoring affair. The model’s final recommendation backs the Avalanche as the clear winner of Game 1. A win gives Colorado a 1‑0 lead and advantage for two games.