The Vegas Golden Knights grabbed a 4-2 lead in the Western Conference finals after Carter Hart stopped 36 shots and four different players found the net. Colorado now trails 1-0 in the best-of-seven series, with Game 2 set for Friday at 8 p.m. ET. Cale Makar is out for Colorado with an upper-body injury, adding pressure on the Avalanche to answer quickly.

Vegas is chasing its second Stanley Cup in four years while Colorado eyes a second title in five. The Avalanche enter Game 2 as -169 favorites with the over/under set at 6.5 goals. Both teams rank among the league's top three offenses, averaging 4.1 and 3.7 goals respectively. The SportsLine Projection Model, which carries a +668 return on top-rated NHL picks, has run 10,000 simulations of this matchup.

The model is projecting 6.7 combined goals and backing the Over at 6.5, with the Over hitting 53 percent of the time across those simulations. Hart's over has landed in 16 of his 31 starts this season. Vegas's Over hit in six of its last 11 games. The model projects Nathan MacKinnon to lead Colorado with 0.84 points per game, while Jack Eichel (0.61) and Mark Stone (0.56) stand out for Vegas. The Avalanche's offensive firepower and the Over trend make that the sharper play here.