JPMorgan Chase and other major banks are set to announce trading revenues exceeding $40bn for Q1 2025, driven by market turbulence from the Iran conflict and Venezuela operations. This marks a 13% surge compared to 2024, per Bloomberg and Visible Alpha forecasts. The spike follows record oil price swings and equity market instability tied to geopolitical risks. Analysts note that equities trading is outpacing fixed income and commodities, with JPMorgan and Citigroup leading FICC growth at 8-13%.

The surge reflects banks’ adaptation since 2008, shifting from speculative bets to client-driven transaction facilitation. While geopolitical uncertainty could dampen equities capital markets, investment banking fees are projected to rise over 10% across all five banks. Dealmaking rebounded due to AI financing demand and relaxed regulations, though prolonged conflicts might delay listings. RBC’s Cassidy warns that volatility could create short-term weaknesses in public offering activity, though trading fees remain resilient.

Goldman Sachs kicks off earnings Monday, followed by JPMorgan and Citigroup. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report midweek. Profits are expected to climb 7% overall, with Goldman and Morgan Stanley benefiting most from trading focus. Non-bank lending exposure is under scrutiny as private credit fund redemptions raise credit quality concerns. Banks’ appetite for higher-yield lending has surged, though recent volatility may test this trend. Investors will closely watch how geopolitical risks intersect with market dynamics in the coming weeks.