Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 22, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Geopolitical Fallout & Commodity Markets
The escalating war in the Middle East continues to exert severe pressure across global markets, with investors bracing for turbulent open bloomberg.com as the conflict with Iran enters its fourth week without abatement, causing many to revert to a 2022 playbook for assessing risk bloomberg.com. The conflict is not only driving up energy costs—with gas prices rising more than 30% ft.com in parts of the US South and Southwest—but it is also making dealmaking valuations challenging, leading to paralysis in US oil and gas mergers ft.com. Furthermore, the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com, which has seen sparse transits from Iran-linked vessels, has forced a tweak to the regional oil benchmark bloomberg.com usually pricing the bulk of crude supply, while commodity analysts suggest markets are currently underpricing the resulting supply shock bloomberg.com. In response to the rising costs, the International Energy Agency suggested that oil-consuming nations could mitigate the shock by employing demand-saving measures, such as encouraging work from home bloomberg.com.
The energy crisis is manifesting unevenly, with Asian nations turning to coal bloomberg.com to fill liquefied natural gas supply gaps caused by the Middle East instability, while in Texas, negative West Texas gas prices reveal a significant dislocation where surplus production is being burned off due to logistical constraints bloomberg.com. The conflict’s impact is rippling through maritime security, where private jets landing in the Gulf now face war risk insurance costs reaching $50,000, prompting some operators to refuel outside the region ft.com to minimize ground time, essential given the vulnerability exposed in maritime supply chains focused on efficiency over resilience ft.com. Meanwhile, the first of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil barrels from President Trump's planned 172 million-barrel release are set to reach the market soon, an effort aimed at keeping consumer fuel prices in check bloomberg.com.
Despite the inflationary energy shock, which has caused Canadian stocks on the TSX to erase all 2026 gains bloomberg.com and hammered popular hedge fund trades in the UK gilts market ft.com, traditional safe havens have disappointed; investors found that gold, usually a beneficiary of war and inflation, has underperformed, suggesting they would have been better positioned in microcap stocks wsj.com. On the geopolitical front, the hope that Israeli actions could spur an internal uprising within Iran has so far been dashed nytimes.com, as President Trump’s strategy appears miscalculated bloomberg.com, and Tehran has warned it will attack critical infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened bloomberg.com. Japan, whose vessels rely heavily on the strait, confirmed it is not considering unilateral talks with Iran bloomberg.com to secure passage, as the conflict continues to complicate global aviation logistics by narrowing flight corridors between Asia and Europe nytimes.com.
Corporate & Dealmaking Activity
Telecom consolidation continues in Latin America, as America Movil’s Claro bloomberg.com announced plans to acquire a majority stake in Desktop SA for 4 billion reais, equating to a $750 million enterprise value. In Europe, Poste Italiane SpA launched a substantial public offer valued at approximately €10.8 billion ($12.5 seeking full control of Telecom Italia SpA bloomberg.com. Private equity activity remains resilient in certain sectors, exemplified by Blue Pool Capital raising $1 billion wsj.com for its inaugural private-equity fund despite a generally tough fundraising environment, while on the infrastructure side, Blackstone arranged a $1.2 billion credit facility bloomberg.com for Air Trunk’s data center expansion in Japan. On the regulatory front, the UK regulator announced it will investigate the failure of mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions, following an earlier review that had given the firm an all-clear ft.com.
Automotive sector strategy is undergoing a pivot away from electrification; following Rolls-Royce, over a dozen global carmakers have now reverted their EV plans wsj.com as consumer demand for traditional petrol engines proves sticky, leading dealers to offer deep discounts on electric vehicles to move inventory ft.com. Meanwhile, Volkswagen's retro American truck brand, Scout Motors, faces a bumpy road in the US market ft.com due to stiff dealer opposition to its distinct identity. In entertainment, Amazon MGM secured its biggest-ever hit movie wsj.com with the Ryan Gosling sci-fi adventure ‘Project Hail Mary,’ which opened to $80.5 million domestically. In mergers, the FCC approved Nexstar’s $6.2 billion acquisition of a local TV rival, consolidating control over 265 stations across 44 states nytimes.com.
Asset Management & Regulatory Shifts
Asset managers are navigating new investment strategies amid market turbulence; Dimensional Fund Advisors bloomberg.com is pioneering the adoption of an exchange-traded fund share class for a mutual fund, following the expiration of Vanguard Group’s patent on the structure. In fixed income, large managers including State Street and Voya Investment Management bloomberg.com are seeking protection against default risk in corporate bonds, which look riskier due to rising energy prices and inflation fears. Separately, Double Line’s Jeffrey Sherman strongly argued that private credit assets do not belong bloomberg.com in open-ended ETFs, as hedge fund Fermat Capital Management pushes back against proposed EU limits on retail investor access to catastrophe bonds bloomberg.com. In the technology space, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Microsoft joined a credit-risk index bloomberg.com reflecting heightened investor hedging demand for hyperscaler debt amid broader bond market volatility.
In the UK, a supermarket executive chair has proposed a temporary cap on energy profits ft.com for utility companies amid exceptional market conditions, while investors are scrutinizing governance at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, where the board is set to review CEO Luigi Lovaglio’s tenure following his decision to stand for re-election under a rival proposal bloomberg.com. On the municipal level, Chicago’s City Council voted to repeal a minimum-wage law wsj.com championed by Mayor Brandon Johnson, signaling a shift in local economic policy. Furthermore, U.S. housing finance entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities bloomberg.com to stabilize a market roiled by widening bond spreads and volatility.
Technology, AI & Economic Headwinds
The race in autonomous vehicles is heating up, with Uber attempting to make up lost ground ft.com in the robotaxi sector, while excitement builds that the hype around self-driving cars is finally translating into a genuine expectation for mainstream adoption wsj.com. Meanwhile, the ongoing Mideast conflict poses a direct threat to the technology sector, as the entire semiconductor supply chain remains dependent on Middle Eastern energy and chemical imports, meaning the war could derail the AI boom ft.com. In the broader market, the S&P 500's historical lockstep movement with the 'Mag 7' technology shares appears to be breaking down, a development that strategists at JPMorgan Chase cut their S&P 500 target bloomberg.com, noting that risk asset upside is now more constrained by geopolitical uncertainty. For investors seeking protection against potential market downturns, the advice remains that index funds offer the best defense wsj.com against an eventual AI bubble correction, as most active managers are projected to underperform during a bear market.
In other tech news, Buzz Feed founder Jonah Peretti is pinning his hopes on a new AI skunkworks operation to save the digital media company from financial straits nytimes.com, while Edward Jones CEO Penny Pennington asserted that AI will not replace its $2.5 trillion financial adviser network, insisting clients will still demand human insights in investing ft.com. On the regulatory side, the White House is attempting to steer AI governance by urging narrow federal regulation while facing a strong populist backlash against state-level laws ft.com. In China, US regulators are cracking down on manipulation schemes, leading to a faltering environment for Chinese IPOs in America ft.com, though circuit board maker Delton Technology Guangzhou managed a $421 million listing in Hong Kong, seeing its shares rise 34% on debut bloomberg.com.