The article investigates whether home teams receive preferential treatment from referees in football using data from football-data.co.uk. Key metrics include fouls, yellow cards, and covariates like possession and odds. Analysis reveals home teams consistently receive fewer yellow cards per foul, suggesting potential home bias. Factors like league culture and match dynamics are considered. COVID-era empty stadiums data is also analyzed to isolate crowd effects. The study emphasizes methodological rigor to separate perception from reality.

Joseph Buchdahl’s dataset tracks fouls and bookings since 2017/18, focusing on *cards per foul* rather than absolute numbers. Home teams show a 0.15–0.34 yellow card advantage in all leagues, with Portugal’s Primeira Liga leading in fouls. The gap persists even after adjusting for team strength and game state. Reverse fixtures and empty stadium matches indicate crowd influence may play a role.

The conclusion leans toward home bias as a significant factor, though not definitive. The author attributes this to crowd pressure rather than referee favoritism toward big teams. The analysis underscores the complexity of interpreting referee decisions, highlighting the need for data-driven approaches over anecdotal claims.